Roma vs AC Milan Odds & Prediction

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook on April 28.

Roma vs AC Milan Over/Under and Spread

With the benchmark set at 2.5 goals in the game, the bookies have listed the under at -190 and the over at a more tempting +155, reflective of how close and low-scoring the first leg was.

Roma vs AC Milan Preview

Recent wins over Torino and Udinese had given Jose Mourinho’s Roma the upper hand in the battle for the third and fourth Champions League spots, but their 3-1 defeat at Atalanta last weekend left the door open for AC Milan to go above them on the number of goals scored.

With Juve having had their 15-point deduction overturned, they have now gone above both Roma and Milan in the battle for third and fourth but, crucially, lost to Inter at the weekend.  The Old Lady now sits just three points ahead of them both in third place, so little wonder that this one is being labeled a six-pointer in the Italian press.

Massive Month for Mourinho’s Men

This is a huge month for the Giallorossi who, in addition to their domestic charge for a Champions League place, also have a two-legged Europa League semifinal against Bayer Leverkusen to look forward to, after coming from behind to beat Feyenoord in the quarters.

Roma’s recent record against Milan isn’t great though – they haven’t won any of their last six Serie A meetings – but on the plus side, they have a fine recent defensive record, especially at home where they have recorded seven clean sheets in their last eight games. This is the best current record in Europe’s top five leagues.

No Scudetto for Milan

This has not been the title charge that coach Stefano Pioli wanted for his young Milan team, especially after leading them to last season’s Scudetto, but they have been in the top four all season, despite Napoli running away with the title.

Only four defeats in the first half of the campaign had them believing but three straight defeats at the end of January effectively ended their title hopes. Their biggest problem has been their away form which, most recently, has seen them lose on four of their last seven road trips.

Good Recent Milan Record Against Roma

On a more positive note, Milan’s away record against Roma is good, and a win here would make it three wins on the spin against Mourinho’s men in the Stadio Olimpico.

More recently, when these two met in the San Siro in January in the reverse fixture, it looked set for a Milan win with them leading 2-0 with just three minutes of normal times left, but an 87th-minute strike from Ibanez and another from Tammy Abraham in the 93rd saw the game end 2-2.

Roma vs AC Milan Team Lineups and Injuries

Roma Projected Lineup: Patricio, Mancini, Kumbulla, Ibanez, Zalewski, Cristante, Matic, Spinazzola, Pellegrini, El Shaarawy, Abraham.

Injuries & absences: Karsdorp, Wijnaldum (doubtful), Smalling, Llorente.

AC Milan Projected Lineup: Maignan, Calabria, Kjaer, Tomori, Hernandez, Tonali, Krunic, Diaz, Bennacer, Leao,Giroud.

Injuries & absences: Ibrahimovic.

Roma vs AC Milan Head-to-Head Stats

Roma vs AC Milan Prediction

As the odds suggest, this one is on a knife edge and the stakes could hardly be higher. The Mourinho factor also comes into play with Roma’s wily old coach an acknowledged expert in managing these types of occasions.

It’s almost certain to be low-scoring and tight and so, for me, on this occasion there is value in betting on the low-scoring draw.

Roma vs AC Milan Picks: Roma & AC Milan to draw (+195) / Under 2.5 goals (-190)