Royals-Cubs prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, August 18

The last time the Chicago Cubs (62-58) were on the field, Christopher Morel was ripping his jersey off in celebration of his dramatic walk-off home run against the White Sox on Wednesday night. On Friday, they’ll look to keep the good vibes going against the Kansas City Royals (39-84) in a day game at Wrigley Field. Lefty Cole Ragans (3-4, 4.02 ERA) will take the mound for the Royals, while the Cubs will counter with Jameson Taillon (7-7, 5.71). First pitch is set for 2:20 p.m. ET.

Chicago enters as -180 moneyline favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Kansas City is a +150 underdog. The run total is set at 9.

Royals-Cubs picks: Friday, August 18

Injury report

Royals

Out: SP Brad Keller (right shoulder impingement), RP Taylor Clarke (right elbow inflammation), 1B Nick Pratto (left groin strain), SP Daniel Lynch (left shoulder strain), SP Zack Greinke (right posterior elbow soreness)

Cubs

Out: SP Marcus Stroman (right rib cartilage fracture), RP Nick Burdi (appendectomy), RP Brandon Hughes (left knee inflammation)

Starting pitchers

Cole Ragans vs. Jameson Taillon

Ragans, who was acquired by the Royals in the trade that sent Aroldis Chapman to Texas, has been stellar in his first four starts with Kansas City, posting a 1.99 ERA in 22.2 innings. While he’s coming off his worst outing as a Royal (three earned runs in four innings against the Cardinals), he had previously allowed two earned runs combined in his starts against the Mets, Red Sox and Cardinals. He ranks in the 82nd percentile in expected slugging percentage, the 76th percentile in expected batting average and the 78th percentile in barrel rate.

Just when it looked like Taillon was beginning to turn the corner on what’s been a disappointing season, he went out and had one of the worst starts of his career his last time out, allowing eight runs in three innings to the Toronto Blue Jays. Prior to that clunker, he’d posted a 2.17 ERA in his six starts from July 7 to August 8, which had been a boon to a middling Cubs rotation. That said, Taillon had plenty of success against the Royals in the past (1-0, 0.36 ERA in 25.1 innings), so this could be the start where he turns things around.

Over/Under pick

I’m taking the under despite both starters having ERAs above five. Ragans has looked like a different pitcher since joining the Royals, while Taillon appeared to have figured things out prior to his clunker against the Blue Jays. Friday’s game won’t be a shutout, but it also won’t be a track race either.

Pick: Under 9

Moneyline pick

The Cubs continued their march towards an NL Wild Card spot with a wild win on Wednesday. They’re the better team, which should make the difference on a day when the starting pitching matchup is a bit of a toss-up.