Red Sox-Royals prediction: Picks, odds on Saturday, September 2

Another embarrassing loss in Kansas City on Friday night made it five defeats in a row for the Red Sox, whose AL Wild Card hopes are officially on life support. Boston (69-66) will try to get back in the win column in game two of their weekend set with the Royals (42-94), with first pitch from Kauffman Stadium set for 7:10 p.m. ET. The Red Sox will send righty Tanner Houck (3-8, 4.93 ERA) to the mound, while K.C. counters with Alec Marsh (0-7, 5.47).

Boston enters as -192 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Royals at +160. The run total is set at 10.

Red Sox-Royals picks: Saturday, September 2

Injury report

Red Sox

Out: RP Brennan Bernardino (health & safety), OF Jarren Duran (left toe contusion), INF Pablo Reyes (left elbow inflammation), SP/RP Corey Kluber (right shoulder inflammation), RP Zack Kelly (right elbow surgery)

Royals

Day-to-day: C Salvador Perez (upper back/neck tightness)
Out: 1B Nick Pratto (left groin strain), SP Daniel Lynch IV (left shoulder strain), RP John McMillon (right forearm strain)

Starting pitchers

Tanner Houck vs. Alec Marsh

The WHIP wasn’t pretty, but Houck still limited the fearsome Dodgers to just one run over four innings — and showed off an awfully wicked slider in the process. The righty’s breaking ball is among the better ones around, with a .189 BA against and a 38.7% whiff rate despite throwing the pitch more than 35% of the time. Combined with his sinker, he has a gaudy 52.7% ground-ball rate, and while he doesn’t really have a reliable third pitch to deal with lefties, Kansas City doesn’t have the sort of left-handed bats to make him pay for it.

Seemingly out of nowhere, Marsh has piled up 18 strikeouts in just 11.1 innings over his last two starts. Granted, he’s still allowed three runs in each of those outings, but the rookie has a whiff rate in the 79th percentile and a K rate in the 69th. When he’s catching too much of the plate, he can get hit very hard — he has among the worst barrel rates of any starter in the Majors, with four homers allowed in his last two starts — but he’s allowed three runs or fewer in each of his last five outings.

Over/Under pick

Kansas City busted out with 13 runs in Friday’s win, but the Royals hadn’t scored more than three runs in their previous six games. Houck is starting to round into form again after an extended stint on the IL, and with Boston’s offense can erupt at any moment, I’m betting that Marsh does just enough to keep his under this high total.

Pick: Under 10

Moneyline pick

Boston needs this win desperately if they want to stay within shouting distance of a Wild Card spot, and with the better pitcher on the mound and the deeper lineup, they should get it on Saturday night — Houck is more than good enough to go five or six solid innings, while Marsh should make one or two too many mistakes.