Royals vs. Rangers Odds, Picks, Predictions: Plenty of Value on Over/Under (May 12)

Royals vs. Rangers Odds

The Kansas City Royals are off to a bad start this season, as their 10-18 record is the second worst in the American League.

The Texas Rangers aren’t much better. They suffered an 8-2 loss to the Royals on Wednesday and sit on 12 wins overall. Texas is at least scoring some runs, sitting 19th in runs scored entering Thursday’s action.

So, who will score more runs and ultimately get the job done in this meeting?

Kansas City Royals

The Royals are last in all of baseball in runs scored, but there could be some hope for their offense. For one, they seem to be coming out of their funk, as they scored eight runs last time out.

Also, Kansas City hitters have struck out the least amount of times in the league. That bodes well against Texas starter Taylor Hearn, who has a 22% K% since the start of last season. Hearn also struggles with walks, as he has a 9% BB% since the start of last season to go along with a 4.91 xFIP overall.

Royals catcher Salvador Perez has an especially good matchup against Hearn. Perez has a .308 ISO against left-handed pitchers since the start of last year.

Texas Rangers

Royals pitcher Jon Heasley is making his first major league start of the season after making three starts of them last year.

He wasn’t impressive in those outings, posting a 5.90 xFIP, 10% K%, and 5% BB%. Heasley allowed power to both sides of the plate, with right-handed and left-handed hitters having ISOs above .250 against him. However, he seemed to really struggle with right-handed hitters, earning just a 3% K% against them.

That said, this should be a good matchup for right-handed batters Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia, who each have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitchers since the beginning of last year.

Royals-Rangers Pick

I like the over here. Neither of these starting pitchers are impressive and the offenses shouldn’t have the trouble that they’ve been having scoring runs.

And Perez and Semien seem like they’re due for some big hits soon.

The total of eight runs currently sits at -120 odds, so I’m backing that play since the model I use projects this game to clear nine runs.