Rugby World Cup 2023 betting tips: Preview and analysis ahead of the tournament in France

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04 September 2023

Rugby World Cup 2023 betting tips: Preview and analysis ahead of the tournament in France

Rugby union betting tips: World Cup

3pts South Africa to win the Rugby World Cup at 7/2 (General)

Talk about throwing all your egg-shaped balls into one basket! The most lopsided of World Cup draws has resulted in the top five sides in the world lining up in Pools A and B. Not only will one very good team be going home at the earliest opportunity, and another two in the quarter-finals, predicting the respective four pool winners – normally the starting point for all profitable World Cup campaigns – is nowhere near as easy as it has been in the past.

For people seeking an antidote to the doom and gloom surrounding the sport, it promises to be an enthralling and unpredictable eight weeks, with the capacity for more shocks than Danny Cipriani’s autobiography.

But for punters, it is hard to back any of the team with absolute confidence because plotting a course to the final comes with so many caveats. Some solace can, however, be taken from the fact that finishing first or second in Pools A and B is unlikely to make any discernible difference to that team’s chances of going all the way. And one thing is certain in this most open-looking of World Cups – the winner will come from this half of the draw.

Pool A’s principal protagonists New Zealand and France will meet for an eighth time at a Rugby World Cup when it all kicks off in Paris on Friday night, and it is a safe to say that these two will go through whatever the result. Neither will be that fussed if it is Ireland or South Africa who they meet in the quarter-finals as there is very little to choose between the teams in terms of quality and physicality.

No disrespect to Scotland but it is hard to see them finishing anything other than third in Pool B even with the strongest-looking squad they’ve had in a generation.

No team outside of the top four of the world rankings has ever won the tournament and while that system of meritocracy has its critics, at the present moment in time they fairly reflect form. We can safely say without fear of contradiction, that none of the teams in Pools C and D are credible contenders.

Wales and Australia are led by two very familiar coaches in Eddie Jones and Warren Gatland, the wiliest of wily old stagers, but both teams are in the early stages of a rebuilding process. And while Fiji are fancied to go well, a semi-final appearance let alone reaching the final would be beyond their wildest dreams.

In Pool D, Japan and England are going backwards … we would say rapidly but England’s demise is as slow and painful as their mode of play, and Argentina aren’t consistent enough to win the minimum of six matches it takes to lift the Webb Ellis Cup. Samoa, like Fiji, have taken big strides forward but even though their odds on topping the pool have been slashed, they’d need to borrow half the current All Blacks team, not the handful of former players they have persuaded to switch allegiance, to be in the mix. The Pacific teams have undoubtedly been strengthened by the birthright transfer ruling and could be set for their best World Cup in the professional era but making the quarters would be their cup final.

So now that we have narrowed it down to four teams, who goes on and wins it? For us, there are fewer question marks about South Africa’s credentials than the rest. Manie Libbok’s inexperience as a Test fly-half has been highlighted but if anything, the way he plays has helped to make them an even more rounded team than one that bludgeoned and kicked its way to victory in Japan four years ago.

The forward pack still remains the most-feared in world rugby but with Kurt-Lee Arendse and Canan Moodie joining Makazole Mapimpi and Cheslin Kolbe as genuine match-winners, they are very difficult to contain in all facets of play.

New Zealand found that out to their cost in suffering an all-time record 33-5 defeat at the hands of the Springboks in their final warm-up match before the tournament. The feeling is that the defeat will only serve as a wake-up call to a team that were out-gunned physically in the loose and the set-piece but they must be carrying some baggage from the Twickenham debacle.

South Africa did a proper number on them and, worryingly for New Zealand, Sam Cane wasn’t able to give them the inspirational leadership that Siya Kolisi gives the Springboks when things were going so horribly wrong.

France’s growing casualty list is a concern for home fans hoping they won’t lose their bottle like they did in 2007. Lock Paul Willemse has joined star fly-half Roman Ntamack as a frustrated spectator on the sidelines, while leading loose-head Cyril Baille and powerhouse centre Jonathan Danty will miss the opening match at the very least. Danty is hugely influential, in attack and defence, and Les Bleus will be hoping his absence is only short term.

Which leaves us with the well-oiled machine that is Ireland. Andy Farrell’s winning mentality has rubbed off onto his team and they go into the tournament determined to put right the wrongs of the past. It is one of the World Cup’s eternal mysteries that they have never made it beyond the last eight, especially when the likes of Brian O’Driscoll and Paul O’Connell were in their pomp, and bringing home the Webb Ellis Cup is the least they expect.

Andy Farrell insists Ireland have the right mentality to roll with the punches, and who are we to doubt him. Ireland play in a very distinct and structured manner, manipulating defences out of position with their pull-back passes and running off the ball.

After a record 13 consecutive victories you cannot argue it isn’t a winning formula., but there is a worry that one of their rivals will work out a way of stopping them playing the way they like to play. If they do, can Ireland respond?

Out of the two heavyweights, South Africa have been there and done it before when it comes to bouncing back off the ropes at a World Cup. Prior to 2019, no team had never lost a pool game and won the whole thing as the Springboks did. This time we reckon history will be repeated, not broken, and the Springboks will win an unprecedented fourth title.