Boks clever: Holders South Africa hold all the aces as Rugby World Cup kicks off

FITTINGLY for the biggest event in a sport that is ramping up in physicality almost by the week, the 2023 Rugby World Cup will start with a heavyweight clash in Paris on Friday night when hosts France take on perennial contenders New Zealand.

In the eight previous renewals of the tournament, only four countries have emerged triumphant – the All Blacks, South Africa, Australia and England.

And going into this year’s event, only four sides have realistic chances of getting their hands on the Webb Ellis Cup at the Stade de France on October 28.

Three-time champions New Zealand and South Africa will attempt to become the first nation to make it four, while the French and world number one-ranked Ireland will be confident of ending their 36-year wait to be officially seen as the best team on the planet.

That quartet of sides are light years ahead of the rest at present, and yet the draw – infuriatingly held way back in 2020 – has ensured that two of them will bow out at the quarter-final stage.

New Zealand and France are both in Pool A, while the Springboks will begin the defence of their crown in Pool B alongside Andy Farrell’s Irish side, and also Scotland, who can rightly claim to be the fifth best side around.

The winners and runners-up in those two sections are on a collision course in the last eight, meaning two brilliant teams will be heading home early.

Meanwhile, the basket cases that are Wales, England and Australia are licking their lips at the prospect of soft-looking pools and a very plausible run to the last four.

Such is the standard set by the current ‘big four’ that the bookies find it very hard to work out who should be going into the tournament as favourites, with many firms having the All Blacks, France and the Springboks as 3/1 co-favourites.

Ireland, meanwhile, are just behind with Bet365 a best-priced 5/1, a quote that will appeal to some shrewd observers as well at the patriotic punters.

Certainly Ireland have strong claims, going into the World Cup on the back of a 13-game winning streak stretching back to a stunning series success in New Zealand last summer and taking in a very impressive Six Nations Grand Slam.

Farrell has hardly put a foot wrong at the Irish helm, and he has a side full of talent and experience, from Tadhg Furlong and Dan Sheehan in the front row to Hugo Keenan at full-back.

The key man is still Johnny Sexton, and the veteran out-half will be wrapped in cotton wool between games in the hope of nursing him through to a glorious send off after the final. If the Leinster kingpin does succumb to injury towards the latter stages, things would get a little sticky, and that is the major worry.

The September 23 clash with South Africa is the key game in Pool B, although the outcome may not matter all that much as it is a toss-up whether you’d rather have a quarter-final against the All Blacks or Les Bleus.

The last eight has been the limit for Ireland in the past, and the draw makes it almost certain this campaign will either end there again, or in the final.

Much might be known about the chances of the hosts come the final whistle on Friday night as an opening win over New Zealand would provide huge momentum.

Fabien Galthié has got the French public back behind his team, and scrum-half Antoine Dupont conducts everything with precision.

He will miss regular half-back partner Romain Ntamack, however, the Toulouse man having succumbed to a knee issue.

That will offer encouragement to All Blacks coach Ian Foster, who has come under fire again after the 35-7 hammering by South Africa in their final warm-up game at Twickenham two weeks ago.

Foster was roundly criticised after his side lost four times in 2022, the first time that has ever happened in a calendar year, and while they then went on to win 11 on the bounce, and yet another Rugby Championship, the doubts are re-surfacing, although you can never write them off and in Will Jordan they have an electric back-three operator who could well emerge as top tryscorer, having racked up 23 in 25 caps thus far.

He will be licking his lips about taking on Uruguay and Namibia and looks a fine bet at 8/1 with Unibet. 

South Africa might just be peaking at the right time once more, having marched to victory in Japan four years ago, with inspirational skipper Siya Kolisi back in the fold after a remarkable comeback from a cruciate ligament injury.

Kolisi opened the tryscoring against the All Blacks in London, with exciting winger Kurt-Lee Arendse also on the scoresheet.

With Cheslin Kolbe still going strong and Canan Moodie tipped by many to be the break-out star of the tournament, the Springboks have the firepower to go with their traditional strength in the pack, and they might just be the bet to win the whole thing at a best price of 7/2 with Boylesports.

Arendse, meanwhile, is also a great each-way punt in the tryscoring stakes at 16/1 with William Hill, who like many of the leading firms are paying six places.

He has 11 in the 10 games he has played since making his debut last August, and while competition for places in the Boks backline is intense, the Bulls man is known for making the most of his chances.

The four sides emerging from Pool C and D will have little to no chance of winning the tournament, but two of them will reach the last four and the best bet to do so could be Argentina, who are probably more reliable than Pool D opponents England.

Steve Borthwick inherited a mess from Eddie Jones and it might even have got worse for the English since then, having lost three times in the Six Nations and then slumped to a first ever defeat to a Tier Two nation against Fiji at Twickenham on August 26.

Jones, meanwhile, is back at the Australian helm and is faring even worse that he did in his latter days in England, having lost five on the bounce.

The Wallabies and Wales – who will hope Warren Gatland can pull a rabbit out of a hat after a number of high-profile retirements – are the expected qualifiers from Pool C, but Fiji are more than capable of causing a surprise here.

The Pacific Island nations have all benefited from the change in eligibility rules to allow former All Blacks and Wallabies to switch allegiance, while Fiji are reaping the rewards of having a team – the Drua – in Super Rugby.

Samoa are tempting at 10/1 to creep out of Pool D, but Fiji are the best of the island teams and would only need to upset either Wales or the Aussies to reach the last eight for a third time, so at 5/2 (Unibet) they should be backed to reach the quarter-finals.

Of course, they aren’t potential winners, with only four of those going to post, and South Africa are just about fancied to emerge on top of the world again.

RUGBY WORLD CUP 2023 SELECTIONS

South Africa, 7/2 (Boylesports);

Argentina to reach semi-finals, 27/20 (Unibet);

Fiji to reach quarter-finals, 5/2 (Unibet);

Will Jordan, top tryscorer, 8/1 (Unibet);

Kurt-Lee Arendse, top tryscorer, e/w, 16/1 (William Hill)