Rugby World Cup betting tips: Quarter-finals preview and best bets including Ireland v New Zealand

Rugby union betting tips: Saturday October 14

Wales v Argentina

2pts Wales (-5.5) handicap at evens (888sport)

1pt Wales by 6-10 points at 9/2 (General)

1pt Under 45.5 match points at 4/5 (General)

Credit to Michael Cheika, the enigmatic Australian coach of Argentina, he has tried to use Spanish as much as possible whenever he’s addressed the media. It’s been a valiant attempt and the Australian has graduated with higher honours than anyone from the ‘Steve McLaren School of Modern Languages’ ever did, but the English/Spanish combination has still made for its own puzzling dialect, some have called it ‘Cheakish’, and in some ways his team are equally as confusing.

You used to know what you were going to get from Argentina at World Cups gone by – a huge pack of forwards and a 10 who will kick everything, off the floor and out of hand. But you never know with this Pumas outfit which one will turn up. And to be honest, they have failed to turn up the majority of times in France with a series of below-par displays. With Wales, it is a different story, you know exactly what you are going to get so, in a game where it would be easy to fall on either side of the fence, we believe Wales are the much safer bet.

Wales have won all four games to date by being gritty, by preventing the opposition imposing their game plan on them, rather than playing the opposition off the park. But if there was one game where they get to show they are still a force in the game, this is it. Louis Rees-Zammit had three touches and scored three tries last time out against Georgia, so just think what they could do if they actually used the fastest player at the World Cup properly?

In reality though, Wales will look to suffocate and frustrate the Pumas and it will be interesting to see if the South Americans’ temperament stands up to scrutiny. Previous fixtures between the two suggest that you don’t have to score a shedload of points to win so, for us, Wales should cover the four-point handicap, and win by 6-10 points in a game of fewer than 46 points.

Ireland v New Zealand

• Saturday, 2000 BST

2pts Ireland to win at 3/4 (Betway)

2pts Over 47 match points at 5/4 (Vbet)

1pt Johnny Sexton to be Man of the Match at 10/1 (William Hill)

When was the last time the All Blacks went into a World Cup final as underdogs? Never is the answer. Four years ago they fully justified their favourites’ tag in demolishing Ireland, 46-14 in Tokyo. Ireland had gone into that tournament having risen to the top of the World Rankings. But it was only a brief stay and, in truth, everyone knew it wasn’t an accurate reflection of the world order at the time. This time around though, Ireland fully deserve their status as the best team in the world.

Ireland’s winning run is now rivalling Andrew Porter’s mullet for length and it will take something very special from the All Blacks to stop them. With the way that the All Blacks play, this game could easily shift one way and then the other. The All Blacks move the ball so quickly on the counterattack and are the most clinical side in the tournament when it comes to putting points on the board when entering the opposition 22.

However, this Ireland defence has stood up to close examination before and while everyone focuses on their inability to win any of their previous quarter-finals, let’s not forget they have had the upper hand on New Zealand three times out of the last five meetings.

If any of the southern hemisphere teams are going to win this weekend, you’d reckon that New Zealand have the best chance given their World Cup pedigree and the talent they have in their line-up. But as we all know, rugby is a team game and Ireland are the better ‘team’; their whole should be better than the sum of all the All Blacks’ parts, as exciting as they are.

If anyone is going to lead Ireland into the unknown and a first World Cup semi-final, it is record points scorer Johnny Sexton. The veteran fly-half won’t want his final game to be yet another quarter-final defeat and we’re taking Ireland to put those past miseries behind them in what should be one hell of a game.

England v Fiji

• Sunday, 1600 BST

2pts England (-12) at 6/4 (Boylesports)

Call it unpatriotic if you will but England are a tough team to love. Having covered the handicap in all three of their previous three games, we tipped them to do so against Samoa and, regretfully, they let us down. England came up with another sopheric display yet, once again, they found a way to win.

While Fiji’s win over England at Twickenham in the pre-World Cup warm-ups was nothing short of remarkable, a repeat here wouldn’t be that surprising … if Fiji hadn’t run out of gas. England lack many things but one thing they do have on their side is experience in going deep into tournaments, and the resources to cope with that, whereas Fiji are entering the quarter-finals for the first time since 2007 with a team that, frankly, looks out on their leggy legs.

Fiji will raise themselves, it is England they are playing after all, but they haven’t shown their best selves at this World Cup, and the win over Australia has to be put into context because of how bad the Wallabies have been.

England have bossed the possession stats in France – only New Zealand have had more of the ball – and scoring chances for Fiji could be few and far between, meaning they may be forced to run when it is not really on. No team is better in the world at that than them but when it goes wrong, it goes horribly wrong. Their tournament high turnover count of 16 per game is testament to this. On average, England only let the opposition into their 22 a miserly six times per match and concede very few points when they do, so Fiji will have to be much more on-point in their attacking game to put England under scoreboard pressure.

As long as England keep the ball away from Levani Botia’s grabbing hands at the breakdown when they have the ball themselves, they should have enough about them to win, and score a few tries in the process, and finally give chief cheerleader Ben Earl something proper to celebrate.

France v South Africa

Sunday, 2000 BST

2pts France HT/FT at 6/4 (Spreadex)

1pt 1st try-scorer to be a winger or full-back at 7/4 (William Hill)

This Springboks’ World Cup squad resembles the British & Irish Lions in that they have a gun XV and the dirt-trackers (second string). While the dirt-trackers have made short work of beating inferior opposition – as the Lions normally do – the gun XV failed to properly fire against both Scotland in victory and in defeat to Ireland.

Against a team that hasn’t lost at home since before Covid was even spoken about, South Africa will have to go up several notches to do what Argentina did at the last World Cup hosted in France and spoil the party. Playing catch-up rugby doesn’t really suit the Springboks but all things considered, that’s probably what they will have to do. Not since February 2018 – a run of 34 matches – have France trailed at half-time. France-France is a best-priced 6/4.

Since their World Cup win in 2019, South Africa have evolved into playing more of a 15-man game and barely a game has gone by without one of their wingers getting on the scoresheet. As for France, Damian Penaud is on his best-ever try-scoring run, and is a habitual early try-scorer, so the 7/4 William Hill are laying for the first try-scorer position to be a back-three player (winger or full-back) is one that has caught our eye.

Looking at the two teams, there was concern over the respective fly-half positions going into the World Cup. France were rueing the misfortune to lose Romain Ntamack to injury, while the jury was still out on Manie Libbok and whether he could do what Handre Pollard did in 2019 and kick South Africa to victory.

While Mathieu Jalibert’s brilliant performances have eased any nerves Les Bleus’ fans have had – let’s not forget New Zealand won the World Cup with their third/fourth-choice number 10 in Stephen Donald – South Africa have got themselves into such a quandary that they called up Pollard after a 30-minute cameo on his comeback from injury, to replace a hooker. Now South Africa have only one specialist hooker and a fly-half debate that rivals George Ford vs. Owen Farrell for England.

As much as it pains us to say it given how we tipped South Africa to win the whole thing, France deserve to be odds-on favourites (5/6 Spreadex). Back in 2007, the expectation seemed to weigh them down and they had to escape to Wales to show what they were capable of (beating the All Blacks in Cardiff. But this time around, Les Bleus are riding the crest of the Mexican wave and have embraced the fantastic support they are getting up and down the country. It should sweep them into the semi-finals, and then the final.

Posted at 1050 BST on 13/10/23

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.