Saturday each-way racing tip: Trends analysis suggests Flower of Scotland can blossom at Kelso
After producing some tasty profits recently, the popular trends analysis of racing expert Andrew of Fiosrach has picked out the aptly-named Flower Of Scotland in one of Saturday's races at Kelso.
2023-03-24Saturday each-way racing tip: Trends analysis suggests Flower of Scotland can blossom at Kelso
Our trends analysis approach has enjoyed a decent couple of wins in the last week with Major Dundee (12/1) winning the Midlands Grand National (Notachance was also placed third at 25/1) and Impaire Et Passe winning the Ballymore Hurdle the the Cheltenham Festival at odds of 5/2.
These winners followed up the success of Iceo at 5/1 winning the Betfair Hurdle two weekends back.
There is a decent meeting at Kelso on Saturday covered by ITV Racing, and I have used the trends below to try and identify the winner of the Schloss Roxburghe Hotel Handicap Hurdle, run at 14:25 over just shy of three miles, two furlongs:
- 8/8 - Aged between 7-10 years-old
- 8/8 - Won between 2-5 times over hurdles
- 8/8 - Ran in the last seven weeks
- 7/8 - Favourites placed in top three
- 6/8 - Irish (four) or French (two) bred
- 6/8 - Carried 11st-1lb or more in weight
- 6/8 - Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
- 5/8 - Placed in the top three last time out
- 4/8 - Had run at Kelso before
- 4/8 - Ridden by a conditional jockey
- 3/8 - Ran at Haydock last time out
- 2/8 - Trained by Lucinda Russell
The race has already been reduced to seven runners at the final declaration stage and three of those are eliminated by the age parameters above - namely Inis Oirr, Spike Jones and Jet Legs, although I believe all three have chances to win this on form and ability.
The next to be eliminated was Pym as he hasn't seen a racecourse for over 500 days and has only been with Nigel Twiston-Davies for three weeks.
He was followed by the hat-trick-seeking Theme Tune, who meets several of the trends, but a lack of a recent race may see him fade in the latter stages. Theme Tune also prefers soft or heavy ground, which looks unlikely to happen here.
By a process of elimination this leaves two horses, Leostar and Flower of Scotland, of which Leostar is British-bred, while he also misses out on weight carried.
The final horse on the list is Flower of Scotland, who reverts to hurdling and she will be suited by this long trip. Sandy Thompson is one of the shrewdest trainers around, so it will not be a surprise to see Flower of Scotland be spot on for this.
Despite a nagging feeling that one of the six-year-olds could buck the age trend, the main trends point to Flower of Scotland, as the most likely winner despite being one of the outsiders.
The advice this week is one point to win on Flower of Scotland or half a point each-way with any bookmaker offering a bonus three places on the seven-horse race.
