Newbury Horse Racing Trends & Tips On Saturday 11th Feb 23

Sports Lens

10 February 2023

Newbury Horse Racing Trends & Tips On Saturday 11th Feb 23

See below our Newbury horse racing trends and tips for the three big ITV4 races at the Berkshire track on Saturday – Game Spirit Chase, Betfair Hurdle and Denman Chase – each one will also provide some more valuable Cheltenham Festival clues and pointers ahead of the big meeting next month.

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Game Spirit Chase, Betfair Hurdle and Denman Chase the Big Highlights at Newbury On Saturday

Newbury are expected to beat the frost ahead of their cracking Betfair ‘Super Saturday’ card that is spearheaded by the three top Cheltenham Festival trials races.

The Game Spirit Chase (3:00) will give us some more pointers towards the Champion Chase at Cheltenham – the last horse to win both contests in the same season was Altior in 2018. The Paul Nicholls yard have also won the race seven times before and have the hot favourite in Greaneteen.

Prior to that, we’ve got the Denman Chase (2:25), which has been a fair Gold Cup stepping stone race in recent times, with Coneygree, Denman, Kauto Star & Native River the last horses to win both races in the same term – but this year it’s unlikely we’ll be seeing the Gold Cup winner – however, all eyes will be on Eldorado Allen as he looks to follow up his win in the race 12 months ago.

The Betfair Hurdle (3:35) sees the shrewd Emmet Mullins with the favourite – Filey Bay – who is coming over from Ireland and could be thrown-in off a mark of just 133. While we’ve also got last year’s winner in the race – Glory And Fortune, who will be looking to become the first back-to-back winner since 1964!

Newbury Horse Racing Trends and Tips For Main ITV4 Races | Sat 11th Feb 23

Andy Newton takes a look at the three main races from Newbury racesthis Saturday – the Denman Chase, Betfair Hurdle and Game Spirit Chase – giving you the key horse racing trends for each race to help find the best profiles based on past winners, plus his 1-2-3 quickfire best bets in each contest.

2.25 – Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

16/19 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/19 – Placed favourites
14/19 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
14/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/19 – Aged 8 or younger
11/19 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (4 winners)
11/19 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
11/19 – Raced at either Cheltenham or Kempton last time out
8/19 – Won last time out
8/19 – Winning favourites
8/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (10 wins in total)
4/19 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman, Kauto Star & Native River)
4/19 – Returned a double-figure price
4/19 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (4 of the last 6)
The average SP in the last 15 runnings is 7/2

SPORTSLENS 1-2-3 NEWBURY RACING TIPS: The Kim Bailey-trained DOES HE KNOW (e/w), who if 4-from-7 over fences, will love the expected quick ground at Newbury on Saturday and despite falling at Kelso on his return run in October bounced back from that with a top win at Cheltenham at their November Meeting. Last year’s winner Eldorado Allen, from the Tizzard camp that have a good record in this race, won’t be far away again, while another yard that love to win this prize is Paul Nicholls and his likely favourite Hitman looks to have a big chance too. But, despite having ability and getting weight, the worry for him is he’s won only one of his last 8 races.

DOES HE KNOW (e/w) @ 15/2 with BetUK
ELDORADO ALLEN
HITMAN

3.00 – Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m92y ITV4

17/17 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
16/17 – Placed favourites
14/17 – Aged 8 or younger
14/17 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (3 winners)
13/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/17 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
12/17 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
10/17 – Winning favourites
10/17 – Had raced at Newbury (fences) before (6 winners)
9/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Fumambule Sivola (9/4) won the race in 2022

SPORTSLENS 1-2-3 NEWBURY RACING TIPS: It’s hard to look beyond the GREANETEEN here – from the Paul Nicholls yard that have won this race 6 times in the last 17 years and is another that will adore the quick ground. Nicholls has freshened him up since running second to Edwardstone in the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown and is fully expected to take this before heading to the Cheltenham Festival for the Champion Chase, where he’s @ 12/1 with BetUK. Elixir De Nuit can take the silver and last year’s winner Funambule Sivola

ELIXIR DE NUTZ
FUNAMBULE SIVOLA

3.35 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

20/20 – Carried 11-8 or less in weight
19/20 – Aged 7 or younger
18/20 – Rated 130 or higher
17/20 – Had raced within the last 9 weeks
17/20 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
16/20 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
16/20 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
15/20 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
13/20 – Placed favourites
11/20 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
10/20 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
8/20 – Won last time out
8/20 – Aged 5 years-old (including 8 of last 16)
7/20 – Winning favourites
3/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all)
3/20 – Trained by Gary Moore
3/20 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 of the last 9)
2/20 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill (2 of the last 13)
2/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 10)
2/20 – Owned by JP McManus
25 of the last 26 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 14/1

SPORTSLENS 1-2-3 NEWBURY RACING TIPS:Filey Boy has been popular all week, but represents little value now, so a chance is taken on the Willie Mullins runner ICARE ALLEN (e/w), who comes over from Ireland and will be looking to give the County Carlow handler his first win in this competitive handicap. He’s also owned by JP McManus, who has won this race in the past with My Tent Or Yours and Get Me Out Of Here, while 5 year-olds have a good record here – winning 50% of the last 12.

Icare Allen returned from a break to run a fair third at Fairyhouse at the start of December and even though he’s got a lot of weight, that is for a reason after running some top races at Graded level last season, including when 4th in the 2022 Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Of the rest, the Gary Moore yard have a fine record in this event, with wins in 2015, 2008 and 2007, so his pair Yorksea and Teddy Blue are worth savers at better prices.