Saturday Night Football Week 15

Covers

27 January 2023

This game has huge playoff implications as Miami is running out of time to catch Buffalo in the AFC East. With the Dolphins' defense struggling against the passing game, our spotlight props are banking on Stefon Diggs to do all the right things.

The Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills will play a crucial AFC East contest at Highmark Stadium on Saturday night. The Fins desperately need a win in order to stay in the hunt for the division crown after dropping two in a row. But the Bills, who have won four straight, are far from an easy out.

Stefon Diggs has played no small part in Buffalo’s success this season, and he’ll need to be on top of his game again if Buffalo expects to win this one. Here are my three favorite Stefon Diggs props for Saturday, December 17.

Stefon Diggs prop picks

Anytime TD
Over 5.5 receptions
Longest rec Over 23.5 yds

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Stefon Diggs props

Tuddy for Stefon

At plus money, Diggs is a solid wager to score a touchdown Saturday night.

Diggs has visited the end zone in eight separate games this year, and three of his last four overall. His 10 total touchdowns in 2022 lead his team, and he trails only Travis Kelce and Davante Adams for the NFL lead at 12. He needs just one score before the season’s end to set a personal best.

Though Diggs did not record a touchdown against the Dolphins in Week 3, prop bettors should note that he got to the end zone in three of his first four games against them with the Bills.

Josh Allen — who trails only Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow in touchdown passes this season with 26 — should be able to move the ball through the air with purpose despite the threat of snow. He’ll be attacking a Miami defense that’s 22nd in passing touchdowns allowed this year, with 20 through 13 games, and blizzard conditions are not in the forecast for Saturday’s game.

Don’t expect Buffalo to stall out in the red zone either. The Bills have converted 57.5% of their red-zone drives into touchdowns this year — 13th in the NFL — while the Dolphins’ defense ranks 24th in the corresponding category (60%).

Prop: Anytime touchdown (+114)

Reelin em in

This line may eventually move to 6.5 receptions, potentially at plus money on the Over. That wouldn’t be a bad wager, but I’m happy to take this prop as it stands too with one less catch to get at the expense of some juice.

Diggs has been targeted an eye-popping 133 times by Allen in 2022, fourth-most in the NFL. He also ranks fifth in target rate (31.2%), and sixth in target share (29.4%).

The Maryland product has reeled in over 70% of those targets for 94 receptions (third in the league), an average of 7.2 per game, and has recorded only seven drops — the third-fewest in football. Diggs has exceeded 5.5 catches in nine of 13 games this year, or nine of 11 if you exclude his efforts against a stingy Jets squad.

The Dolphins’ defenders have been getting papercut to death by receivers all year long, as they’ve given up the second-most completions to opposing quarterbacks this season. They should have few answers for Diggs — whom they surrendered seven catches to in Week 3.

Prop: Over 5.5 receptions (-152)

Going deep

Bettors could easily side with the Over on Diggs’ total receiving yards (70.5), but there appears to be a slightly bigger edge on the Over for his longest reception on Saturday night.

Diggs specializes in creating after he hauls the ball in, as he ranks fourth in yards after catch this year (424). He’ll be facing a Miami defense that’s allowed the third-most yards after catch in the NFL (1695).

Allen is never afraid to look Diggs’ way regardless of the situation. Diggs ranks fifth in air yards (total distance traveled by all intended targets) and has been targeted deep 20 times this season, the eight-highest figure in football.

He's beaten the line on this prop 10 times in 2022, including five of his six home games to date.

Prop: Longest reception Over 23.5 yards (-120)