Seattle Mariners vs. San Francisco Giants: Odds & Lines (7/5/23)

• Who: Seattle Mariners at San Francisco Giants
• When: Wednesday, July 5
• Time: 9:05 p.m. ET / 6:05 p.m. PT
• Where: Oracle Stadium (San Francisco, California)

Betting Odds Summary

• Moneyline: Mariners +145, Giants -170
• Runline: Mariners +1.5 (-140), Giants -1.5 (+120)
• Total: Over/Under 8 Runs (-115/-105)

Moneyline

The Seattle Mariners (42-42) and San Francisco Giants (46-40) meet in the series finale of a three-game set at Oracle Park on Wednesday. The Giants are looking to avoid the sweep and snap a four-game losing streak, while the Mariners will try to pull above .500 with their fifth straight win.

Seattle sends veteran southpaw Tommy Milone to the mound. Milone is making his second start of the year for the Mariners and first since April 14, when he tossed 4 ⅔ innings of one-run ball against the Rockies.

San Francisco is leaning on veteran righty Alex Cobb, who is 5-2 with a 3.12 ERA in 15 starts for the Giants this year. He’s allowed two earned runs or less in three of his last four starts.

Seattle is still listed as the moneyline underdog for this game despite taking the first two contests. The Mariners are 11-16 as underdogs this season.

However, the odds are not necessarily in San Francisco’s favor, either, as it only boasts a 21-22 record when favored on the moneyline. The good news for the Giants is that their 23-21 home record is better than Seattle’s 18-22 record in road games this season. 

With home-field advantage and a more reliable starting pitcher on the mound, it makes sense why San Francisco is favored in tonight’s game.

Runline

These teams have similar records against the spread, as the Giants are 44-42 against the runline while the Mariners are 40-44. San Francisco is exactly .500 at home (22-22) ATS, while Seattle is a bit better on the road at 22-18.

The Giants only cover the runline 37.2% of the time when favored, however, while the Mariners cover the spread 59.3% of the time as underdogs.

Both teams are nearly identical in terms of run differential. San Francisco has a +29 run differential through 86 games, while Seattle owns a +24 run differential through 84 games.

That said, we shouldn’t necessarily expect a close game this evening. The average margin of victory at Oracle Park this year is 3.6 runs. 

Total

Looking at the over/under, these teams are trending in opposite directions. Seven of the Mariners’ last 10 games have hit the Over, while six of the Giants’ last 10 games have hit the Under.

That said, there are a couple of trends favoring the Over. The Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these two clubs and 6-1 in their last seven showdowns in San Francisco.

Both teams are solid offensively. The Giants rank 10th in MLB in scoring at 4.72 runs per game, while the Mariners are 14th at 4.57 runs per game.

Both teams allow more than four runs per game as well. San Francisco gives up 4.38 runs per game, while Seattle permits 4.29 runs per game.

Accordingly, we should expect more than eight total runs to be scored tonight, causing the Over to hit.