Twins vs. Mariners: Odds, Lines, Picks & Best Bets (7/19/23)

• Who: Minnesota Twins atSeattle Mariners
• When: Wednesday, July 19
• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET / 6:40 p.m. PT
• Where: T-Mobile Park (Seattle, Washington)

Betting Odds Summary

• Moneyline: Twins +125, Mariners -145
• Runline: Twins +1.5 (-165), Mariners -1.5 (+140)
• Total: Over/Under 7.5 Runs (-105/-115)

Moneyline

The Minnesota Twins (49-47) and Seattle Mariners (47-47) enter the third game of this four-game series after splitting the first two contests. The AL Central-leading Twins look for their 50th win of the year while the Mariners look to move a game over .500.

Minnesota sends righty Kenty Maeda to the mound tonight. Maeda is 2-5 in eight starts with a 5.50 ERA and 41 strikeouts in 36 innings pitched. Seattle starts All-Star Luis Castillo, who is 6-7 with a 2.96 ERA and 122 strikeouts in 112 1/3 innings this year.

The Twins are 12-23 as the moneyline underdog this year, while the Mariners are a solid 35-29 as the moneyline favorite. Minnesota has struggled a bit on the road, going 23-25 away from Target Field. Conversely, Seattle is 26-23 at T-Mobile Park.

With the Mariners at home and having the pitching edge, it’s unsurprising to see them favored here.

Runline

The spread shows Minnesota is 47-49 against the runline this season, including 26-22 on the road. Seattle, meanwhile, is 45-49 against the runline, including an underwhelming 19-30 at home. The Mariners have covered the runline in seven of their last 12 games, however.

The Twins own a solid +38 run differential through 96 games this season, while Seattle has a +25 mark through 94 games. In that regard, Minnesota has a slight edge.

Accordingly, the math says the Twins are a good bet to cover the +1.5 spread today.

Total

Looking at the Over/Under, Seattle has been strong with the Over recently. The Over is 13-8 in the Mariners’ last 21 home games, while the Twins are on a six-game streak of hitting the Over.

In terms of run prevention, both teams rank among the best in baseball. Minnesota is second in the majors in runs allowed per game (3.94) while Seattle is ninth (4.20).

Similarly, both teams rate a bit below average for scoring runs. The MLB average is 4.60 runs per game, but the Twins are at 4.33 and the Mariners are at 4.47.

Still, we’d expect the two teams to combine for 8.8 runs scored here and give up 8.14, putting the likely total around 8.5 runs.

As such, we’re likely to see at least 7.5 runs in this contest and recommend taking the Over.