SEC women's basketball tournament championship odds
The sports betting world seems to have a blind spot when it comes to odds for the SEC women's basketball tournament, which begins Wednesday afternoon in Greenville, South Carolina, with South Carolina and LSU as the top two seeds.
On Tuesday night, you could have found point spreads for any major college basketball game you wanted, men's or women's (California Baptist vs. Southern Utah, anyone?) at most major sportsbooks. You can find odds for numerous small-conference men's tournaments, including the Atlantic Sun and Big Sky.
But the conference tournament for one of the most storied leagues in women's basketball? Nowhere at any major sportsbook. Odds were widely available for SEC games all season long, and No. 1 South Carolina is the odds-on favorite to repeat as national champion, but nowhere can a bettor find a market for the conference tournament.
So, we decided to make our own odds. Granted, we're not accepting bets, but this market was calculated with a typical sportsbook hold in mind and should be pretty close to what you'd get if and when a book decides to lay odds (the top teams in the tournament don't play until Friday's quarterfinals, so it's still possible we'll see odds.)
Without further ado, here's the Bet.NOLA.com odds for this year's SEC women's basketball tournament (find the bracket here):
No. 1 seed SOUTH CAROLINA (-450)
Well, duh. This implies about an 81% chance the Gamecocks win the title. That actually seems somewhat low, considering Carolina is unbeaten and has won all but two of its SEC games by double digits. However, this team wasn't quite as dominant in the second half of league play and faces a reasonably tough draw, with Ole Miss — which took South Carolina to overtime just last week — a potential semifinal opponent, and likely either LSU or Tennessee waiting in the final. You might see some books lay a -500 here, but we'll give you a little better than that.
No. 2 LSU (+600)
The Tigers have clearly been the second-best team in the league all year, and coach Kim Mulkey is usually one to have her teams playing at their best in the postseason. If LSU can get another chance at South Carolina, expect the game to be closer than the 88-64 beatdown the Gamecocks gave the Tigers on Super Bowl Sunday. But to get there, the Tigers likely will have to get past a solid No. 7 seed in Georgia (which took LSU to overtime in the regular season) plus the Lady Vols.
No. 3 TENNESSEE (+1000)
Never has a team that went 13-3 in the regular season seemed like such a long shot. The Lady Vols have struggled when they've stepped up to the nation's top teams, going 0-5 against top-10 teams and losing by at least seven points each time. They'll likely have to beat two of them to win this tournament in LSU and South Carolina.
No. 4 OLE MISS (+1800)
Casual fans probably don't realize what a nice season the Rebels had, going 11-5 in the SEC and earning the last double-bye for the tournament. As mentioned, Ole Miss also took South Carolina to overtime just 10 days ago and swept the season series from Mississippi State, its likely quarterfinal opponent. If anyone wins the tournament outside the top three teams, it's very likely to be the Rebels.
No. 7 GEORGIA (+3500)
Outside of the top four, the best point differential in the league belonged to the Bulldogs — and they have the added edge of landing on the opposite half of the bracket from South Carolina. As mentioned, Georgia took LSU to overtime in Baton Rouge in the regular season, so a quarterfinal upset isn't out of the question.
No. 6 ALABAMA (+4500)
Another team on the non-South Carolina side of the draw, the Crimson Tide won at Ole Miss early in the conference season and also played South Carolina reasonably tough — a 13-point loss. But against other teams that finished in the top half of the league, Bama is just 2-5.
No. 5 MISSISSIPPI STATE (+5000)
The Bulldogs aren't what they were under Vic Schaefer, when the SEC tournament wasn't the bracket they worried about, but they're still respectable. However, this is a nightmare of a draw, with nemesis Ole Miss in the quarterfinals and then mighty Carolina in the semifinals.
No. 8 ARKANSAS (+10000)
No. 9 MISSOURI (+12500)
No. 10 AUBURN (+12500)
We're into true long shots now. Arkansas blew Mizzou out both times they played this year, so expect them to at least get through the first round, but South Carolina should put an end to that run. Same goes for Auburn — maybe the Tigers can upset Georgia, but then LSU would be waiting.
No. 11 FLORIDA (+12500)
No. 12 VANDERBILT (+20000)
No. 13 TEXAS A&M (+25000)
No. 14 KENTUCKY (+25000)
The four teams that must play in Wednesday's first round have virtually no chance of winning five games in five days against SEC opponents. Florida seems the most likely to make noise. The Gators won their final two games against teams above them in the standings and played LSU reasonably tough before that.
