Senators vs. Panthers pick: NHL odds, prediction, best bets

There is less than a week to go in the 2022-23 NHL regular season and there are still plenty of races that need to be settled in both conferences.

Both divisions are still up for grabs out West, while the Eastern Conference playoff race is down to three teams for two spots. 

One of those teams, the Florida Panthers, is a big favorite over the Ottawa Senators on Thursday night.

Winners of their last four games, including what was essentially a playoff game with the Buffalo Sabres on Tuesday night, the Panthers should be feeling pretty good about where their game is at as we head into the final week of the season.

Senators vs. Panthers pick

(7 p.m. ET. ESPN+)

Florida has skated to a +12 goal difference during this four-game winning streak and has allowed just five goals against despite playing No. 3 goaltender Alex Lyon in every contest. 

It’s been an impressive run for the Cats, who needed to do something big after losing four in a row prior to this hot streak, but we do need to add some context to their current form. 

While they did beat Toronto on the road to kick off this rip, the Panthers needed a last-minute goal to get that contest to overtime after being outplayed for most of regulation.

Lyon kept them in it and they rewarded him by getting him a win.

After that, Florida trounced two lottery teams, Montreal and Columbus, before eking out a 2-1 win against Buffalo.

Florida created plenty of scoring chances in that win and could have scored more if Devon Levi wasn’t sharp for the Sabres, but the Cats also allowed 40 shots and 4.62 expected goals and have Lyon to thank for the victory.

Now the focus will shift to the Ottawa Senators, who need a win to keep their incredibly slim playoff hopes alive.

The Sens are six points behind the Panthers with four games to play. Ottawa would need to run the table and hope for a miracle to get into the tournament.

But the Sens are a young, dangerous team that’s thrived in the spoiler role over the years and they have the offensive upside to give a team trouble.

Ottawa’s defense is banged up and they’ve played seven goaltenders this season, but the Sens can outscore those issues if they’re clinical.

With Sergei Bobrovsky back and healthy, it is expected that he’ll get his first start in over a week for the Panthers.

Betting on the NHL?

Bobrovsky is the more talented goaltender compared to Lyon, but how he comes back from the illness that kept him on the shelf is a question mark.

It may not matter considering the state of Ottawa’s goaltending, but it does throw another variable into the mix.

The more variance and chaos in a matchup, the better it is for the underdog.

Oftentimes in betting the “must-win narrative” will drive the price way out of range on the team in the bigger spot.

That looks to be happening on Thursday night. Sell high on Florida and zag against the must-win narrative.