Maple Leafs vs. Senators picks and odds: Bet on Ottawa to win
The Battle of Ontario renews on Saturday night between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators.
The pregame narrative: Ottawa’s western road trip didn’t yield many positive results, but we’re picking the team to win at home. We’re also expecting plenty of goals and an over bet to cash. Lastly, we’re wagering on a high-scoring second period.
NHL odds as of 9:24 a.m. on 03/18/2023.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators picks
Best Bet: Senators moneyline (+120)
Ottawa’s recent results don’t inspire much confidence, but it’s important to contextualize them.
The Senators have lost four consecutive games with three coming on the road. Their most recent loss — a 5-4 defeat to the Colorado Avalanche — was their first home game since Mar. 4. Prior to that narrow loss, however, they had won each of their last four home contests and seven of their last 10.
Toronto, meanwhile, is hitting the road which has largely been a mixed bag. The Maple Leafs are an underwhelming 16-11-4 away from Scotiabank Arena, scoring five wins and five losses across their last 10 road outings.
The season series between these two is split 1-1, but Ottawa does hold the edge on aggregate (8-5). With Toronto also holding the rest disadvantage after playing on Friday, look to the Sens for an upset win.
Key stat: The Senators are 19-13-2 at home this season.
Quick picks
Over 6.5 goals (-127): Ottawa’s getting some absolutely brutal goaltending as of late as the team’s .841 save percentage across the last week is the third-worst in the NHL, according to Natural Stat Trick.
The Senators have also been an over machine at home recently, surpassing this total in eight consecutive outings at Canadian Tire Centre.
Toronto, on the other hand, is starting Matt Murray and that’s a positive for the over. The ex-Sens netminder has allowed four goals in each of his last five starts and is sporting a .835 save percentage.
Both teams to score - Period 2 (-105): The Maple Leafs are one of the NHL’s best second-period offences, ranking fourth with 90 goals in the middle frame this year. They’ve notched a tally during the period in four of their last five contests.
The Senators only have 71 goals during the frame, but have a second-period goal in seven of their last 11.
