Shohei Ohtani May Become First 2-Time Unanimous MLB MVP

Two years ago, Shohei Ohtani became the 19th player to win the Most Valuable Player award by a unanimous vote of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BWAA). It was quite an achievement for Ohtani, who is arguably the best hitter-pitcher combination in baseball history.

This season, Ohtani has been even better. The Los Angeles Angels star could be the first player in Major League Baseball history to win the MVP unanimously on multiple occasions.

As of now, there’s little doubt Ohtani will win the American League’s MVP, barring an injury or unforeseen mega-slump in the final nine weeks of the season. Ohtani is an overwhelming favorite, so much so that it makes little sense to bet on him. People would make much more money just putting the cash in an online savings account or similar no-risk investment.

The odds of Ohtani winning the MVP, per RotoWire, is -10,000, meaning that someone betting $20 on him would win 20 cents. RotoWire examines betting lines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet.

Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager and Houston Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker are next with +8,000 odds, meaning a $20 bet would win $1,600.

Despite Ohtani’s front-runner status, there is no guarantee he will win unanimously. The award is voted upon 30 members of the BBWAA, two from each of the AL’s cities. And as with any group of people, it’s hard to come up with a consensus even in circumstances where it seems like a no-brainer decision.

Ohtani’s MVP case is about as strong as anyone’s in history. He leads the AL in OPS (1.083), slugging percentage (.680), on-base percentage (.403), home runs (39) and triples (7). He is also second in RBIs (81) and sixth in average (.302).

If Ohtani was simply a designated hitter, he would be the MVP favorite. After all, he leads the AL with 4.9 wins above replacement (WAR) for position players, 0.3 ahead of Seager. This is Baseball Reference’s WAR, which differs from Fangraphs’ WAR.

Add in Ohtani’s pitching prowess, and he’s a shoo-in. His 7.7 WAR is first in the league by a wide margin. New York Yankees pitcher Gerrit Cole is second with a WAR of 4.8.

In 20 starts, Ohtani has gone 9-5 with a 3.43 ERA, 10th in the league. He leads the AL in opponents batting average (.185) and is second in strikeouts per nine innings (11.64), third in strikeouts (156) and eighth in walks and hits per inning pitched (1.07).

Ohtani was at his best last Thursday in a doubleheader against the Detroit Tigers. In the opener, he threw the first complete game of his career, allowing just one hit, striking out eight and walking three. And in the second game, Ohtani hit two home runs, becoming the first player in MLB history to throw a shutout in one half of a doubleheader and hit a home run in the other game.

Still, there have been other instances in which it seemed that a player would be a unanimous MVP, only to see one or more voters use a first-place vote on someone else.

The BBWAA has awarded MVPs in each league since 1931, with 11 American Leaguers and eight National Leaguers winning the awards in a unanimous vote. Of the players with the 31 best single-season WARs for position players since then, 20 have won MVPs, but only two have done so in unanimous fashion: Barry Bonds in 2002, with a WAR of 11.7 (third-best since 1931), and Mickey Mantle in 1956, with a WAR of 11.2 (seventh-best since 1931).

Some recent examples of players with all-time great seasons who won the MVP but not unanimously?

In 2016, Angels outfielder Mike Trout had a 10.5 WAR, but he only received 19 of 30 first-place votes. Mookie Betts, who was then playing for the Boston Red Sox and had a 9.5 WAR, received nine first-place votes, while Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz (5.2 WAR) and Texas Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre (6.7 WAR) had one vote apiece.

In 2018, Betts had a 10.7 WAR, the fourth-best WAR in the previous 43 years, only trailing Bonds from 2001 and 2002 and Cal Ripken Jr. in 1991. But Betts only received 28 first-place votes: Trout (9.9 WAR) and then-Red Sox teammate J.D. Martinez (6.7 WAR) received one first-place vote apiece.

And last year, New York Yankees first baseman Aaron Judge led the AL with 62 home runs, 131 RBIs, 133 runs, 111 walks, .425 on-base percentage, .686 slugging percentage and 1.111 OPS. He was also tops with a 10.6 WAR, but he only received 28 first-place MVP votes. Ohtani received the other two votes.

Since 2000, five players have won unanimous MVPs: Bonds in 2002, Albert Pujols in 2009, Trout in 2014, Bryce Harper in 2015 and Ohtani in 2021. Based on the season he’s having, Ohtani should do so again this year. Still, history says getting everyone to vote the same way is more rare than one would think.