Shohei Ohtani Next Contract Odds: How Much is Shotime Worth?

Shohei Ohtani is set to be a free-agent at the end of the current MLB season and teams will be desperate to sign him. Projections have the new contract around $500.5 million, but are teams comfortable with that number? I break it down below.

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If you were tasked with creating the perfect baseball player to add to your team’s roster, which players would you pick apart to create your baseball Frankenstein?

Would you take Elly De La Cruz’s speed and combine it with Ronald Acuna’s hitting? Or maybe Pete Alonso’s power combined with Mookie Betts’ intangibles?

The combinations are endless but for me it’s simple. 

I’d just clone Shohei Ohtani and spend the rest of my time marveling at his abilities. 

As we approach the end of Ohtani’s sixth season in the Major Leagues, we are starting to run out of ways to describe him. He’s majestic, powerful, dominant, assertive, unbelievable, and he’s doing it for a team that is at the bottom of the World Series odds board. 

Despite the Los Angeles Angels being on track to miss the postseason for the ninth straight season, Ohtani has taken his game to the next level, leading the league in home runs with 44. He was also the runaway leader on the AL MVP odds board, sitting at -30,000 before books started pulling odds entirely.

Perhaps the best ability Ohtani has shown is his ability to block out the noise. Ohtani is having a career year in the final year of his contract, with an impending free agency circus that’s sure to follow.

He is going to be the most sought-after free agent in sports since LeBron James in 2010, and he’s in store for a massive payday.

Shohei Ohtani's next contract value

Odds as of August 29, 2023

Ohtani's abilities 

Will Ohtani get $500.5 million and should he get $500.5 million are two different questions. 

Is Ohtani worth over half a billion dollars from a baseball ability standpoint? I believe he is.

He’s one of the best hitters in the game. He hits for power, he hits for average, he’s quick on the base path and he is loved by everyone. 

Oh, and he’s one of the best pitchers in the Majors, posting the fourth-best ERA in the AL (3.14) and the best opponents' batting average at .184 in 23 starts this season.

He’s the quintessential cornerstone for a franchise looking to work its way out of misery. 

However, a recent UCL injury is going to keep Ohtani off the bump for the remainder of the season and many think this injury could derail his chance to secure the half-billion-dollar contract. 

It’s not set in stone that Ohtani will require a second Tommy John surgery, but it’s on the table and teams may be hesitant to dish out the megabucks for only half the package. 

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What will Ohtani sign for?

Ohtani’s UCL injury has thrown everything for a loop. His impending contract was supposed to creep upwards of $700 million but that may be too steep now. 

Let’s look at the facts:

• Tommy John surgery is possible but not a sure thing and while he may not be pitching, he’s still crushing baseballs on a nightly basis.
• Missing out on his talents because of this half-billion-dollar number would be short-sighted.
• Ohtani is a global superstar and the sponsorship revenue from companies that wouldn’t otherwise invent is unlike anything teams will experience from signing other top free-agent talents. 

I say pay the man his money. He’s shown us countless times why he’s worth it and I wouldn't bet against Ohtani bouncing back from this setback. 

If Ohtani wants to bet on himself and go a different route on a shorter deal until he’s back to full health, that’s his prerogative, but I believe Ohtani wants to find a forever home and one that will put him in contention to win championships. 

If I’m any of the Dodgers, Mets, Giants, Mariners, Jays, or Yankees, I’m backing up the Brinks truck without hesitation.

My best bet: Shohei Ohtani next contract value: Over $500.5 million (-110) 

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