Shohei Ohtani Odds: Are Dodgers Lock To Land Him?
Shohei Ohtani is a baseball unicorn.
He's an elite pitcher, an All-Star hitter, and maybe the best overall player we've ever seen in the sport. And now, he gets to pick where he plays.
The former Rookie of the Year and two-time AL MVP award winner will shape the entire baseball world with his 2023-24 MLB free agency decision. So, where will Ohtani sign? And how much cash will Shohei get from his next team?
Shohei Ohtani 2024 Team Odds
The current odds would suggest a two-team race. The Dodgers are chalked at -160, which suggests a 61.54% probability, according to our odds calculator. Toronto's -130 odds suggest a 56.52% probability.
Dodgers Best Bet To Sign Ohtani (-160)
The Dodgers have everything going for them in the Ohtani free-agency race. They're on the West Coast, they're right down the road from where he's been playing his entire MLB career, and they're the most consistently competitive team in MLB. But, most importantly, it looks like the Dodgers have been preparing to sign Ohtani for years.
Beyond Mookie Betts ($30 million AAV) and Freddie Freeman ($27 million AAV), Los Angeles doesn't have a single other player on the 2024 books set to make more than $13 million. The Dodgers are arguably the biggest market in baseball and have all the money in the world to spend. Everything's pointing to Ohtani signing with the Dodgers, and we can't ignore it.
Other Ohtani Fit: Blue Jays (-130)
Ohtani seems to want to stay on the West Coast, but what if he leaves the coast and the country altogether?
The Blue Jays have made big splashes in recent free agencies, signing Hyun Jin Ryu, George Springer, and Chris Bassitt to $20+ million AAV deals the last few winters. They've got plenty of money on the books, but they're also in win-now mode. Signing Ohtani to a massive deal would be the ultimate win-now double-down.
One reason I think the Jays could quietly be in contention for Ohtani is the murky contract status of Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who are both set to hit free agency after 2025. If the Jays don't think they can ink one or both of those young stars, maybe signing Ohtani is a perfect compromise to capitalize on those final two years of the Bichette/Guerrero window, and use the upcoming financial room of their departures to justify an Ohtani mega-deal to ownership.
Other Ohtani Fit: Giants (+900)
If, for some absurd reason, the Dodgers can't manage to lure Ohtani, a team up the California coast will be lurking. The Giants have been looking to land their superstar for years, coming close with Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa last offseason. They don't have a single player set to make over $20 million next year, meaning their books are wide open to add a superstar.
The biggest issue will be selling Ohtani on San Francisco's World Series potential. After a miracle 107-win season in 2021, the Giants have been one of baseball's most mediocre clubs the last two seasons. They've won 81 and 79 games in each of the last two campaigns, respectively.
Sure, signing Ohtani should launch them into playoff contention. But, all reports indicate the two-way superstar is done with scratching and clawing for a taste of the playoffs — he got enough of that slog with the Angels. He wants to go somewhere he can certainly win, and I'm not sure the Giants can provide that guarantee.
Shohei Ohtani Odds: Next Contract Value
A player with Ohtani's skill set hasn’t ever really hit the open market, and with MLB teams splurging in free agency lately, a gargantuan contract is likely in the Japanese star’s future. Even though the two-way star won't be pitching in 2024 after an arm injury, it looks quite obvious that Ohtani’s deal will outclass the 12-year, $426.5-million extension Mike Trout signed with the Angels in 2019. The Trout deal stands as the richest in MLB history, but Ohtani is a lock to exceed that.
I'm not sure how this market works, but if I were to place my money on one of the available markets, I like $10 years, $500 million. The $50-mill AAV and half-bill are both deserved and round numbers. That payout would push the market forward from an MLBPA perspective, while still seeming palatable for whatever team signs him.
