Should Bettors Fade the Favorite as Triple Crown Race Opens?
You’re staring at a 20-horse Kentucky Derby field, trying to make sense out of what promises to be an equine free-for-all, and paralysis sets in. Read on for our free Kentucky Derby picks and predictions based on the best odds from our best horse racing betting sites.
Names, numbers, odds, speed figures—all cascading down on you like Derby traffic will crash the rail the moment the Churchill Downs gate opens for the 149th Kentucky Derby around 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday.
Nobody has an infallible crystal ball to decipher who has the best chance to win North America’s longest-running major sporting event; if they did, anyone who went all-in on Rich Strike winning last year’s Derby at 80-1—the second-biggest upset in Derby history—would be living on an island in the South of France. But there are keys to breaking down a modern Derby to give yourself the best chances for cashing tickets.
Here are three horses to keep an eye on for reasons good and bad for our top free Kentucky Derby picks and predictions for 2023 at Churchill Downs (odds via our best Kentucky Derby betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Kentucky Derby odds
(Odds updated Tuesday, May 2 at 6:45 a.m. ET.)
Kentucky Derby picks and predictions
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Fading the Kentucky Derby favorite: Forte (Post 15/3-1)
Forte's the Champion 2-Year-Old of 2022, winner of $2.4 million and six of his seven races—including four Grade 1s, the peak of the horse racing class pyramid. He checks all the boxes for speed and class. He’s done little wrong thus far, and you probably want him somewhere on your tickets as it would surprise exactly no one if he won the 149th Kentucky Derby.
So why are we looking elsewhere? A few reasons, starting with the aforementioned fact we haven’t seen Forte run 1-2 with a furlong to go in a two-turn Derby prep.
Then, there’s the regression. Forte’s last three Beyer figures have declined: from a 100 to a 98 to his Florida Derby-winning 95. Not a trend that is the friend of Derby-winning bettors. According to horse racing oddsmaker Jon White, only one of the last 31 Derby winners came in with this pattern of declining Beyer figures—2007 winner Street Sense.
Finally, there’s the value—or lack thereof. Forte is trained by Todd Pletcher, one of the best and most popular trainers in North America. His horses, especially on the East Coast, tend to take plenty of money, thus depressing their odds. Combine that with a field featuring too many good horses to take 3-1 or lower on a horse who tends to win from behind and it won’t surprise you if Forte doesn’t win.
Key this Kentucky Derby long shot: Skinner (Post 9/20-1)
You’re looking at arguably the liveliest longshot in the field. Skinner lost the Santa Anita Derby, one of the major prep races, in a blanket finish to Practical Move and Mandarin Hero. His 99 Beyer for that half-length loss was a point behind Practical Move’s 100—and it came with a wide trip. Unlike Forte, Skinner’s Beyer scores are trending north—a 94 in March’s San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita and his last-out 99.
And you’re looking at a lively longshot with a proven sire (Curlin), trained by a man who has been here before—John Shirreffs. In 2005, Shirreffs trained Giacomo to Derby glory—at 50-1. The trainer of the legendary Zenyatta, Shirreffs is a wizard at preparing horses for big moments. Because he lacks a Derby trail win on the resume, Skinner may go off higher than 20-1—making him even juicier for your tickets.
Our Kentucky Derby favorite: Practical Move (Post 10/10-1)
We’ll start with the fact recent Derbies have a West Coast Bias—seven of the last 11 Derby winners came from California; the same state playing host to Practical Move’s last three victories. Those came in the Los Alamitos Futurity as a maiden victory in 2022 and the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby in 2023.
We’ll continue with Practical Move’s speed. He’s the only horse in the field with two triple-digit Beyer scores, the back-to-back 100s from his last two races. He owns the fastest two times in 1 1/16-mile Derby preps among all Derby runners. His time in the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby (1:48.69) is the fastest of all nine-furlong Derby trail races in 2022-23.
And we’ll conclude with the fact Practical Move is a stalker, a running style conducive to modern Derby champions. He has been no worse than fourth at any call in his last three races, indicating the ability to stay close to the lead, then use his tactical speed to pounce in the stretch.
Kentucky Derby info
Date: Saturday, May 6, post time is 6:57 p.m. ET
Location: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
How to watch: NBC Sports
Kentucky Derby betting strategies
What to know for betting the Kentucky Derby
The first thing to know for your Kentucky Derby picks is: speed kills. You want a horse who has good speed figures. There are several types, but the signature and most respected is the Beyer Speed Figure, created by longtime turf writer Andrew Beyer for the Daily Racing Form. The general cutoff for a true Derby contender coming into the gate is a 95. When Rich Strike won last year’s Derby, he was one of only four winning horses in the last 31 years lacking at least a 95 Beyer score on his resume.
This year, eight horses check that box: Two Phil’s (a field-best 101), 3-1 morning-line favorite Forte, and Practical Move (100), Tapit Trice, Verifying, Skinner (99), and Kingsbarns and Reincarnate (95). Horses who come into the Derby with top Beyers in the 80s or low 90s can usually be eliminated.
The second: front-end speed kills. Modern Derbies are won from on or near the front, where horses can escape the pinball-machine traffic endemic to a 20-horse race. Again, Rich Strike’s incredible trip from 17th with a half-mile to go to stealing the Derby in the last 50 yards was an outlier. Since the qualifying points system was established in 2013, only three closers: Rich Strike, Country House in 2019, and Orb in 2013 found the winner’s circle. And Country House found it only through disqualification.
Otherwise, Derby winners are your pace-setters, pressers and stalkers: horses who lead the way, stay near the lead or stalk the pace until the last three-eighths or quarter-mile.
The third: tactical speed kills. That means a horse who can sustain the 1 1/4 miles none of them have run to this point. You want a horse who can stay near the front, but who has enough in the tank to sustain that gear in the final eighth of a mile.
Kentucky Derby trends and stats
Jon White, who sets the morning line for Santa Anita Park and Del Mar and writes a column for Xpressbet, created the Derby Strikes System. He set up eight categories for Derby contenders to meet, giving a strike for each criterion a horse fails to meet. Like golf, only with strikes, the fewer the better.
Probably the best category to measure tactical speed in White’s system is the Eighth Pole Category. That measures whether a horse was first or second at the eighth pole in either of his last two Derby prep races. If a horse is running 1-2 in a 1 1/8-mile or 1 1/16-mile race, that indicates they are likely strong enough to finish what they start. White said that 56 of the last 60 Derby winners met that standard.
Among this year’s horses failing that test are Forte, Lord Miles, Disarm, Skinner, Sun Thunder, and Japanese horse Continuar.
Kentucky Derby betting strategies
So now that you’re armed with the basics, how do you construct your tickets? If you’re playing one of the exotic bets: exacta (picking the top two horses), trifecta (top three finishers) or superfecta (top four), you do need one of the closers somewhere on your ticket. That’s because 10 horses carrying odds of at least 26-1 have finished in the top four since 2012. Those are the kinds of horses who bring home jaw-dropping payouts.
For example, in 2018, the $1 trifecta, with winner Justify (5-2), runner-up Good Magic (9-1) and third-place Audible (7-1) paid $141.40. But the $1 superfecta paid $19,618.20—courtesy of Instilled Regard sneaking into fourth at 85-1.
In what is a wide-open Derby field, where you can make a solid case for at least five horses wearing roses come Saturday night, there is value to be had. Only three horses: Forte, Tapit Trice (5-1), and Angel of Empire (8-1) carry single-digit morning-line odds.
Kentucky Derby picks made 5/4/2023 at 7:30 a.m. ET
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