Shriners Children’s 500 Odds at NASCAR Phoenix Raceway: Backing Ryan *Bleeping* Blaney
The 2024 NASCAR season is heating up as we stay in the desert and head to Phoenix Raceway for the first short-track race of the year. But before checking out the early Shriners Children’s 500 odds, let’s do a quick review of the Pennzoil 400 from Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
Pennzoil 400 Recap: “Same S*** Different Year”
Entering the weekend, there were lots of questions surrounding the new body styles of Ford and Toyota. One of them was whether or not they’d have anything for Chevrolet, especially the HMS garage come race day. Practice and qualifying showed reasons for optimism with Ford and Toyota grabbing 8 of the top-10 starting spots. That included Joey Logano who won the pole for the 2nd straight Spring Las Vegas race.
In the end though, and for the fourth straight spring Las Vegas race, it was an HMS Chevy driver winning the race. The Pennzoil 400 Odds favorite Kyle Larson dominated the day, winning all 3 stages of the race, and leading 181 of the 267 laps in the process. Not all that surprising, considering he’d finished on the front row in four of the previous six total races here in Sin City. Larson acknowledged the excitement about getting past the Daytona 500 and Atlanta race, and heading to Las Vegas:
Two of the most impressive cars during practice and qualifying were the 23XI tandem of Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick. Unfortunately, Sunday didn’t go to plan, and they’re now hoping that the saying “what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas” holds true.
Wallace qualified 5th and had good speed early on. But his race was wrecked at the end of stage 2 when his left front lug nut seized up, and he sustained multiple pit road penalties in an attempt to repair it. Conversely, his teammate Tyler Reddick qualified outside the top-10, but was possibly the best car in practice.
This translated to Sunday where he quickly made his way through the field from 18th for a 2nd place finish in stage 1. But that’s where the same ole pit road problems reared their ugly head. He re-started outside the top 10 but was able to blow past the competition for a stage 2 runner-up finish.
Reddick was able to overcome his lost spots from costly pit road mistakes all day. However, those errors ultimately prevented him from fighting up front with race winner Kyle Larson until the closing laps, potentially costing him the win. Tyler ultimately brought his No. 45 Monster Beast car home 2nd, but his frustrations about his team’s pit road mistakes boiled over post-race saying “Same s*** different year”.
2024 Shriners Children’s 500 Odds
On to Phoenix we go, and the first race with the new short track package. Will we see the same players as last year? See the early Shriners Children’s 500 odds from DraftKings Sportsbook below.
2024 Shriners Children’s 500 Odds: Backing Ryan *bleeping* Blaney
Ryan Blaney Top 5 +110 (Caesars) 1u & Top 3 +225 (BetMGM)
I don’t often bet this market this early in the week, but as we just saw in Las Vegas, the favorites are the favorites at certain tracks for a reason. Amongst that group at Phoenix Raceway is the defending Cup Series Champion Ryan Blaney, who has been the best driver here since the Next Gen car entered the sport.
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In the four events we’ve run in the desert, Blaney has an average finish of 2.5, finishing 4th or better in all four races, including three straight runner-ups. The stats are even more mind-boggling going back to his second season with Penske in 2019. Over these 10 races, he’s amassed FIVE top-3s, SEVEN top-5s, and failed to register a top-10 finish just once.
These plays provide better value than betting him to be Top Ford at +140 because he’s more than likely finishing inside the top 5 at worst in that case. We’re also afforded some safety against other good drivers here like Larson, Byron, and Chastain.
Make sure to check back later in the week when I’ll have more Shriners Children’s 500 Odds analysis and bets.
