NASCAR Cup Series Phoenix odds, picks and predictions: Who will win United Rentals Work United 500?

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10 March 2023

NASCAR Cup Series Phoenix odds, picks and predictions: Who will win United Rentals Work United 500?

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to the desert this weekend for the United Rentals Work United 500 at Phoenix Raceway.

And with it comes the defending series champion Joey Logano, who returns to the mile-long track four months after winning there to clinch his second NASCAR Cup Series title last November.

Logano, who finished second at the Daytona 500 and 10th at Fontana before a disappointing 36th last week in Las Vegas, is the co-favorite to win this week when the green flag drops Sunday afternoon (3:30 p.m. FOX).

The driver of the No. 22 Ford is +800 odds to take the checkered flag, according to DraftKings, which puts him even with his Penske teammate Ryan Blaney. Logano has won three times in Phoenix; and during last November’s win, he led 187 out of the 500 laps.

Blaney, who pilots the No. 12 Ford, is currently ranked 15th in points and has just one top-10 finish in three races – 8th at Daytona.

While Blaney has never won at Phoenix in 14 starts, he does have nine top-10s, including five top-5 finishes. He was the runner-up to Logano in last year's Cup finale, leading 109 laps.

FrontPageBets takes a look at some best bets and drivers to watch as NASCAR hits its first one-mile track of the 2023 season.

Pick to win: Ross Chastain (+900)

Ross Chastain, driver of the No. 1 Chevy, leads the Cup Series in points. He has two top-10s in the first three races of the season, including a third-place finish at Fontana.

Chastain has never won at Phoenix, but does have two top-5s, including a runner-up in the 2022 spring race and a third-place finish last November.

Top 5: Kevin Harvick (+170)

It’s safe to say that Kevin Harvick owns Phoenix Raceway, having the most wins of any active Cup Series driver at the track with nine, including sweeping both races in 2006 and 2014. He won four races in a row in Phoenix from 2013-15.

His first eight wins were in a Chevy, but his final win in 2018 was in a Ford.

This season, the driver of the No. 4 Stewart Hass Racing Ford, is third in points and has two top-10s, including a fifth-place finish at Fontana.

In 40 starts at the Phoenix Raceway, Harvick has 29 top-10s and 19 top-5s. The last time he finished outside of the top 10 at the one-mile track was the spring race of 2013 when he was 13th and finished outside the top 25 just twice.

Manufacturer odds: Chevrolet (+150), Ford (+160), Toyota (+240)

A Ford has won the last two races at Phoenix and three out of the last six. The last Cup Series race on this track, Ford finished 1-2, leading 296 of the 500 laps.

Kyle Larson drove Chevy to its last win at Phoenix in the fall of 2021. Chevy has won two out of the last six races at the mile-long track.

Martin Truex, Jr. won the 2021 spring race in a Toyota, the last time that manufacturer won in the desert. However, Toyota had a three-race winning streak from 2018-19.