Six Nations 2024 predictions, odds & betting tips before this weekend’s matches
Dan Till’s Six Nations predictions for this weekend’s first round of matches including the favourites France welcoming holders Ireland
After a scintillating World Cup last Autumn, test match rugby makes its long-awaited return this weekend as the top sides in Europe battle it out for the Six Nations title dubbed as “Rugby’s Greatest Championship”.
Ireland come into the 2024 Six Nations as the defending champion after claiming their fourth Grand Slam in 2023 and they will be looking to become the first side since England (2016 & 2017) to win a Grand Slam and retain the title the following season.
But they will face a stern challenge to their title from the bookmakers’ favourites France (Grand Slam champions in 2022) and Scotland (yet to win a Six Nations title).
This tournament is one of upheaval for many of the sides, who will be without key figures.
French superstar Antoine Dupont misses the tournament to focus on making the Rugby Sevens side for the upcoming Olympics in Paris.
How the Fabien Galthie’s men (5/4 to win the tournament on Betfred) cope without their inspirational skipper will go a long way to deciding the fate of the title, but they still have a side packed with power, skill and pace with Damian Penaud one of the world’s deadliest finishers favourite to lead the try scoring charts.
Meanwhile Ireland are without the titanic Johnny Sexton, who retired at the end of the World Cup. It’s difficult to imagine an Ireland side heading into a major tournament without their maestro controlling the game from fly-half, can Jack Crowley step in to fill the void? Can Ireland’s rhythmic attack function without Sexton pulling the strings?
Elsewhere the likes of England (13/2 outsiders on Paddy Power) and Wales also enter the Six Nations without a number of familiar faces, but will want to build on successful World Cup campaigns.
Steve Borthwick’s England are without the inspirational Owen Farrell and Courtney Lawes. While Warren Gatland has a remarkably inexperienced squad after the retirement of Dan Biggar, Leigh Halfpenny and Alun-Wyn Jones, who have been at the heart of Welsh rugby for over a decade.
Scotland are arguably one of the more settled sides, with a largely unchanged squad from what we’ve seen in recent years. The uncertainty around other sides could play very much into the hands of Gregor Townsend who has some of the world’s finest players including the mercurial Finn Russell and powerhouse winger Duhan Van Der Merwe.
Perennial wooden spoon winners Italy have a new head coach in Argentine legend Gonzalo Quesada, who will be looking to build on the legacy left by Kieran Crowley. With a set of young exciting backs I expect them to cause at least one upset this tournament.
Six Nations Odds to Win
France (5/4)
Ireland (15/8)
England (13/2)
Scotland (14/1)
Wales (40/1)
Italy (500/1)
Six Nations Betting Tips
Josh Adams Top Tryscorer – E/W 50/1
Wales may not be expected to turn many heads during the Six Nations, but at a best price of 50/1 on BetMGM (generally priced at 33/1 and as short as 25/1) with a whopping seven places available, star winger Josh Adams is well worth an each-way punt. The Cardiff winger has amassed 21 tries in 53 appearances for his country since his debut in 2018.
He finished as the top tryscorer at the 2019 Rugby World Cup, but the Six Nations is definitely his bread and butter. In the last five campaigns he has scored a total of 11 tries, finishing in the top three try scorers on four of those occasions.
With the loss of Louis Rees-Zammit to the NFL, Adams will be the number one man for Wales and at the prices with the favourable each-way terms he is too big to ignore.
Kyle Steyn Top Tryscorer – E/W 80/1
I’ve taken a swing at another big price in the top tryscorer market for my second bet of the Six Nations. If Scotland go as well as many people are predicting then the best price of 80/1 with seven each-way places available on BoyleSports for Kyle Steyn is worth chancing.
This bet doesn’t come without risks, Steyn has only recently returned to action, but with Darcy Graham out injured for at least the first two rounds he should hopefully get a good run at making the shirt his own for the rest of the tournament.
In his debut Six Nations in 2023 he finished joint fourth in the scoring charts and has an impressive international strike rate with 10 tries in 15 tests.
When you look at the market and see that he is nearly 10 times the price of Duhan Van Der Merwe it’s hard not to be tempted into backing the powerful Steyn who may not grab the same headlines as his teammate but is an equally effective operator.
With the risks already outlined above this isn’t a bet to go wild on, but a small each-way play at 80/1 with seven places available is a bet I like.
Thomas Ramos Top Point Scorer – Evens
While the other two bets come with some slight risks attached, my final bet looks to be one of the safest available. French fullback Thomas Ramos has developed into one of the world’s finest players and crucially for this bet one of the best goal kickers in the game.
He blitzed the competition last year racking up 84 points, nearly 50 clear of his nearest rival Johnny Sexton. Were it not for an early exit at the World Cup he would have certainly taken the top scorer crown there as well (he still finished second just one point behind Owen Farrell).
He is a threat not just from the tee but with ball in hand, with three tries to his name in 2023. With question marks over other nations and who may or may not take goal kicking duties, it’s a very safe bet to stick with Ramos. A best price of even money on Unibet isn’t to be sniffed at.
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