Six Nations preview: The omens aren't good for depleted Wales
Next in our set of previews ahead of the Six Nations we examine the prospects of last year’s fifth-place finishers, Warren Gatland’s Wales.
Despite putting in a Rugby World Cup showing to be proud of in France, retirements, injuries and other reasons have left Wales somewhat understrength for this campaign.
However, write off Gatland and the Welsh at your peril as they proved on numerous occasions they produce the goods in this Championship so can they do it again in 2024?
Last year
Gatland was back, there was a decent squad mix of older heads and emerging talent, and Welsh fans quietly began believing, just a little bit, that in a World Cup year their new old coach could pull the side together again for a Six Nations as he did in his first year in charge of Wales back in 2008. Alas, this time, the Gatland effect didn’t take a hold – not immediately anyway.
Instead, the Welsh Rugby Union (WRU) was beset by a scandal in leadership and financial problems which led to cuts of funding in player contracts, the cuts significant enough for the players to threaten strike action ahead of the match against England. Not all of them though; Gatland himself said there had been “quite a significant split in the group” over the option to strike, also later adding that he might not have taken the job had he known the extent of the problems at the WRU. Joe Hawkins’ exit was probably the most painful, heading to Exeter despite it costing him a World Cup, but the powers-that-be were not racing to turn his academy contract into a full one.
After all that, Wales ended fifth, only winning in Rome and suffering heavy defeats to Scotland and Ireland in particular. Yet there were signs in the last game in Paris that something was stirring. Further improvements were noted in the World Cup warm-ups, and in the tournament itself, the Welsh rode their luck to beat Fiji in the opener but comfortably dispatched the rest of their pool counterparts – including a record 40-6 win over Australia – before finally running out of steam in the quarter-final against Argentina.
This year
Who knows? The omens are certainly not good: a raft of established and up-and-coming stars lost to retirement, injury and emigration (i.e. leaving Wales before having met the international cap threshold), the regions performing poorly en masse in all tournaments and a constant murmur of discontent around the financial conditions. Captain Jac Morgan crocked himself, and then Louis Rees-Zammit headed stateside. It’s not been ideal.
But the omens weren’t all that good before the World Cup either, and that worked out ok. Gatland will absolutely have the players singing from the same songsheet, and while there aren’t all that many household names, there are plenty of talented players. Pretty much everything will depend on how well Gatland can meld a team together to be greater than the sum of its parts. It’s his speciality. Don’t write Wales off completely.
Key players
Hundreds of caps’ of experience called time on their international days after the World Cup, a couple did so before it, and still more are missing due to injury and, erm, gridiron. But 118-cap centre George North will have a huge role to play in terms of leadership, and veteran scrum-half Gareth Davies will be backing him up, as will the ever-dangerous Josh Adams on the wing and Nick Tompkins in the middle.
Meanwhile, Wales have one of the youngest international captains ever in Dafydd Jenkins, but it’s not the great risk that many might think; he’s also been the youngest-ever Premiership captain at Exeter Chiefs already.
But most critical eyes will be on two areas. Will Sam Costelow fill the enormous boots Dan Biggar left behind? And can props Kieron Assiratti/Leon Brown/Corey Domaschowski/Archie Griffin/Kemsley Mathias/Gareth Thomas hold up the scrum sufficiently?
If success this season is going to rest on the older heads’ mentoring abilities, the abilities of the youngsters (we’re counting a 27-year-old prop as ‘young’ here) to pull together will be indicative of Wales’ medium-term future.
Players to watch
While Davies will be offering leadership in the squad, Wales are relatively well-blessed with scrum-halves, and both Tomos Williams and Kieran Hardy can provide box-office moments in a broken game. Meanwhile, with Rees-Zammit now over in Florida, Rio Dyer is likely to be the partner on the wing to Adams. He’s been rather in Rees-Zammit’s shadow, but the 24-year-old is a fine talent.
Finally, upfront, while plenty of praise went to back-row Morgan at the World Cup, the contribution of Aaron Wainwright should not be forgotten – not least the 50 tackles he made across his four games. He and Tommy Reffell are in for some hard afternoons at breakdowns, but there are few harder than they.
Prospects
It’s a rough fixture list, starting with the resurgent Scotland and then a trip to Twickenham, followed by a flight to Dublin. But then France come to Cardiff, where Wales have sprung surprises in the past, before Italy visit in the final game. Gatland ought to have the team together by then, if not before. Fifth.
Fixtures
Saturday, February 3 v Scotland (Principality Stadium, Cardiff)
Saturday, February 10 v England (Twickenham Stadium, London)
Saturday, February 24 v Ireland (Aviva Stadium, Dublin)
Sunday, March 10 v France (Principality Stadium, Cardiff)
Saturday, March 16 v Italy (Principality Stadium, Cardiff)
