South Florida vs. UTSA odds, line, spread: 2023 college football picks, Week 12 predictions from proven model

The UTSA Roadrunners will look to keep a share of the American Athletic Conference lead when they take on the South Florida Bulls on Friday night. The Roadrunners (7-3, 6-0 AAC), who finished 8-0 last year to win the Conference USA regular-season title, have yet to lose in their new conference, which sees them tied at the top with Tulane and SMU. The Bulls (5-5, 3-3 AAC), who have won two of three, had just one win in 2022. The Roadrunners are 4-1 on their home field, while South Florida is 2-3 on the road.

The game will kick off at 9 p.m. ET from the Alamodome in San Antonio. USF is averaging 30.1 points per game this season, while UTSA is averaging 31.5. The Roadrunners are favored by 16 points in the latest USF vs. UTSA odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 66.5. Before making any UTSA vs. South Florida picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a stunning profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on South Florida vs. UTSA and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine to see the model's CFB picks. Here are several college football odds and trends for UTSA vs. USF: 

• South Florida vs. UTSA spread: UTSA -16
• South Florida vs. UTSA over-under: 66.5 points
• South Florida vs. UTSA: South Florida +528, UTSA -773
• USF: The Bulls are 2-18 in their last 20 games on the road
• UTSA: The Roadrunners are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games
• South Florida vs. UTSA picks: See picks at SportsLine
• South Florida vs. UTSA live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why UTSA can cover

The Roadrunners have a solid rushing attack, led by sophomore running back Kevorian Barnes. He is in his third season at UTSA, and leads the team in rushing, carrying 127 times for 606 yards (4.8 average) and six touchdowns. He also has 12 catches for 58 yards. Barnes missed last week's game due to a minor injury but is expected to return this week. In his last game, a 37-29 win over North Texas on Nov. 4, Barnes carried 16 times for 129 yards (8.1 average) and two scores. In three seasons with the Roadrunners, he has 269 rushes for 1,473 yards (5.5 average) and 12 TDs.

Also helping lead the ground attack is junior running back Robert Henry, who has at least one touchdown in each of the last six games and has eight in the past eight games. In Saturday's win against Rice, Henry carried 19 times for 63 yards (3.3 average) and a score. For the season, he has rushed 89 times for 482 yards (5.4 average) and eight TDs. He also has 13 receptions for 74 yards, including a long of 14 yards. See which team to pick here.

Why South Florida can cover

Freshman quarterback Byrum Brown is a big reason why the Bulls have already won four more games than they did all of last year. They are tied with Northwestern for the nation's biggest improvement over 2022. Brown has posted four 300-plus passing games this year, including two in a row. In Saturday's 27-23 win over Temple, he completed 18 of 26 passes (69.2%) for 316 yards and one touchdown with one interception. A week earlier, he threw for 357 yards on 31 of 38 passing (81.6%) and five touchdowns in a 59-50 loss at Memphis. He is also the team's second-leading rusher, carrying 168 times for 659 yards (3.9 average) and nine TDs.

Junior wide receiver Sean Atkins leads the team with 69 receptions for 808 yards (11.7 average) and four touchdowns. In the win over Temple, he caught nine passes for 169 yards (18.8 average), the second week in a row he had that many receptions. His other 100-plus-yard effort came against Navy in September, when he caught four passes for 116 yards (29 average) and two TDs. See which team to pick here. 

How to make UTSA vs. South Florida picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 73 points. The model also says one side of the spread is hitting well over 60% of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.