Spain vs Netherlands Predictions & Odds

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09 August 2023

Aitana Bonmati has been Spain's best player in the Women's World Cup, and we fully expect the 25-year-old midfielder to remain a huge offensive threat on Thursday when they take on the Netherlands in quarterfinal action.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Spain and the Netherlands bring their free-scoring soccer to Wellington on Thursday as they square off for a place in the World Cup semi-finals.

Rocked by a humbling 4-0 loss to Japan to wrap up the group stage, this highly-rated Spanish team needed to respond — and they delivered with an emphatic 5-1 win over Switzerland in their Last 16 clash.

However, the unbeaten Netherlands won’t be daunted by that. They showcased clinical finishing of their own in a 7-0 victory over Vietnam in Group E action, before booking their place in the quarter-finals with a 2-0 win over South Africa on Saturday.

Read on for our free Spain vs. Netherlands picks and predictions ahead of this August 10 matchup.

Spain vs Netherlands odds

Spain vs Netherlands picks and predictions

It’s safe to say that Aitana Bonmati has fully emerged from the shadow of Barcelona team-mate Alexia Putellas over the past year. With two-time Ballon d’Or winner Putellas sidelined by an ACL injury, Bonmati ran the show for Spain at Euro 2022, and she’s been a standout performer again at this World Cup.

If anything, Bonmati has gone up another level, dictating the game in midfield like usual and rarely wasting a pass. But it’s her finishing that has especially caught the eye. Bonmati scored twice against Switzerland in the last round — and both goals came via quick feet in the penalty area and unstoppable left-footed shots.

While the Dutch game plan will surely focus on crowding Bonmati in midfield and tracking her forward runs, Spain have shown enough quality in attacking areas to suggest that the burden won’t rest solely on the shoulders of their star midfielder. Alba Redondo and Jennifer Hermoso have looked sharp, and Putellas has largely been used in a substitute role.

The Netherlands have kept three clean sheets in four games at this tournament, but South Africa edged them 7-6 for shots on target at the weekend. I see this Spanish side carving out scoring chances — and Bonmati has thrived with her license to roam forward and support the front three.

Bonmati already has three goals (along with two assists) in four tournament games, and she won’t be shy about letting it fly in and around the box. In this sort of form, I expect her to test Netherlands keeper Daphne van Domselaar.

My best bet: Aitana Bonmati Over 0.5 shots on target (-120 at bet365)

Spain vs Netherlands same-game parlay

Bonmati Over 0.5 shots on target

Spain Over 1.5 goals

Over 22.5 total shots

Spain are flying again and raced into a 4-0 lead against the Swiss on Saturday. Setting aside the disastrous performance against Japan in which they were shut out, the Spaniards have scored 13 goals in their other three games. I see them adding a couple more to that tally here.

I’m taking the Over on 22.5 total shots too. Spain piled up 26 shots on their own in the last round, and they’ve had more than 20 attempts in each of their three victories. The Netherlands began the tournament sluggishly in the final third, but the floodgates opened with 42 shots in the lopsided win over Vietnam.

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Spain vs Netherlands spread and Over/Under analysis

After a five-star outing against Switzerland, it’s no surprise to see Spain as favorites to reach the semi-finals on Thursday. They’ve beaten the Netherlands in their past two meetings (both friendlies) and they boast arguably the best player in the world in Bonmati.

Life gets even tougher for the Dutch with Danielle van de Donk suspended for this quarter-final clash, but they excelled in the underdog role in a 1-1 draw with the USWNT in the group stage. They’re at a talent disadvantage but they’ll be organized and disciplined, and Jill Roord (four goals) has been a scoring threat from midfield.

Both teams created plenty of chances at the weekend, which points towards a high-scoring battle in Wellington. All of Spain’s games have featured three goals or more, and the Netherlands have found the back of the net nine times in their past two contests.

The loss to Japan seems to have served as a wake-up call for Jorge Vilda’s side and could be the catalyst for more attacking magic here.