Spanish Supercopa Odds, Free Picks & Betting Tips

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10 January 2024

Spanish Supercopa Odds, Free Picks & Betting Tips

The second Supercopa semi finals goes on Thursday between Barcelona and Osasuna and if it's anything like yesterday's fixture we are in store for quite the contest. Our soccer betting picks expect Osasuna to keep things close vs. the Spanish giants.

The second finalist of the Spanish Supercopa will be determined on Thursday when Barcelona faces Osasuna from the KSU Stadium in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Our soccer betting odds show the Catalan giants to be overwhelming favorites to advance in regulation.

Barcelona are in the four-team competition as the current La Liga champions, but this season has them far from repeating that glory. While they sit third in the table just seven points behind Real Madrid, nobody who has watched them of late would say they’ve looked like champions. Manager Xavi is feeling some heat as his side continues to eke out results.

A runner-up finish in last year’s Copa del Rey landed Osasuna a spot in this competition, but they’ve not found it easy to replicate their 7th-place finish from a season ago. Mired in 12th halfway through the campaign, they’ve been poor away from home and are closer to the drop zone than the Top Four.

But can Osasuna find a way to cause problems for Barcelona on Thursday? Our Spanish Supercopa semi-final free picks and predictions explain why this may not be as one-sided as the odds indicate.

Barcelona vs Osasuna best odds

Barcelona vs Osasuna picks and predictions

Barcelona used to dominate teams from start to finish, regardless of whether they won 1-0 or 5-0. They’d hold the ball for what felt like an eternity, come at you in waves, and run teams into the ground by making them chase shadows.

That’s not been the case this season. Sure, Xavi’s side is still dominating possession, with the second-most pass attempts in the league. And their 33.4 expected assists are by far the most in the league.

But they’re not converting chances. They’re more than nine assists below expected in La Liga this season, the worst differential in the competition. They’ve scored 36 goals, the fourth-most in the league, despite having a league-high 43.1 xG on the season.

It’s a key reason why they’re not winning matches convincingly this year and haven’t in quite some time. In fact, Barcelona have now gone 20 matches in all competitions without winning by multiple goals—the longest such stretch in the 125-year history of the club.

What makes this such a remarkable feat is their last match, a 3-2 win at Barbastro, came against a team that resides in Spain’s fourth tier of soccer. The match before that took a 93rd-minute goal, after a red card for Las Palmas, to walk away a 2-1 winner.

Barcelona have played 13 matches this season away from “home”, which of course is a temporary relocation while Camp Nou is renovated. They’ve failed to win a single one by multiple goals. That includes a 2-1 win at Osasuna in early September.

In that match, Alejandro Catena was sent off in the 84th minute, just before Robert Lewandowski converted a penalty to secure the win. It marked the third straight meeting between these sides where Barcelona walked away with a one-goal victory.

Xavi’s team is dealing with numerous injuries, especially in their midfield and defense. Osasuna has just one defeat in their last six matches, and are playing well defensively of late.

Given Barcelona’s inability to convert and put teams away, I’ll back Osasuna to keep this one close and make the favored side sweat once again. Head over to TonyBet, and take Osasuna +1.5 on the handicap market.

My best bet: Osasuna +1.5 (-125 at TonyBet)

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Barcelona vs Osasuna same-game parlay

Osasuna +1.5Raphinha to score or assist

Ante Budimir 1+ shots on target

For our same-game parlay, we head to FanDuel with a solid return of over five times our stake.

Much of what Barcelona has done right of late has been tied to Raphinha. He’s been a creative force for the side, with assists in four of his last five matches as well as a goal. I’ll back him to be involved in a goal again on Thursday.

Osasuna’s attack has been led all season by Ante Budimir, but he’s managed just two goals in his last seven matches. What he has done is take shots, with at least two in each of those outings. He’s also posted a shot on goal in his last four matches, including off the bench this weekend in Copa del Rey action.

Barcelona vs Osasuna side and Over/Under analysis

If you’re backing Barcelona to win on the 3-way money line, you’ll not find any value. The best offer price is -250, with some books charging as much as -295 for the Catalans to win. However, a draw can return +425 with an Osasuna victory paying as much as +650.

Barcelona has won six of the previous seven meetings, drawing the other. Osasuna has gone 4W-2D-5L in all competitions away from home this season and needed extra time to defeat Castellon from Spain’s third division this weekend. I don’t see Osasuna getting a result, but they should keep it within a goal, especially with Barcelona’s growing injury list.

That said, Osasuna’s defense of late has been solid. They’ve kept two straight clean sheets, and have allowed one goal or fewer in five of their last six matches. Four of those matches also went Under 2.5 goals.

Barcelona’s been at the other end of the spectrum, with the Over 2.5 coming through in three straight and five of their last six. They’ve also not kept a clean sheet in six straight matches.

That’s why the Over 2.5 is juiced substantially with a price of -175 on offer. You can get decent value on the Over 3 or Over 3.25, while those backing Over 3.5 can get as high as +155. The Under won’t offer much value past 2.5, but you can take that for +135 if you think it’ll be a low-scoring affair.

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