Spinster Stakes (Keeneland) Predictions, Betting Odds, Picks

In one of the most important final races before the Breeders’ Cup, Distaff, Nest, and Idiomatic will renew their rivalry when they headline a field of seven older females in the Grade 1 Spinster Stakes at Keeneland on Sunday.

Despite losing to her rival last time in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign on a sloppy track, Nest remains the one to beat in the 9-furlong test on Saturday.

The champion 3-year-old filly of last year is a three-time Grade 1 winner, with one of those top-level wins coming at Keeneland when she romped home in the 2022 edition of the Ashland Stakes.

A daughter of Curlin, she has only made two starts this season, easily winning the Grade 2 Shuvee before being beaten last time out.

Idiomatic, meanwhile, is the new big filly on the block after three straight graded stakes victories at three different tracks.

Also a 4-year-old daughter of Curlin, she has six wins and a second from seven starts in 2023. She became a graded stakes winner three starts back with a convincing score in the Grade 3 Shawnee at Churchill Downs.

The Brad Cox-trained runner followed that up with a game score in the Grade 2 Delaware Handicap, before upsetting Nest last time out at Saratoga.

Spinster Stakes Predictions and Race Analysis

Nest

A clear cut champion last year, this Curlin filly will need to prove once again that she is at the top of her division. With a pair of races at Saratoga under her belt, the 4-year-old should be ready to show her best on Saturday and then again next month in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

The speed of Idiomatic on a sloppy track got her beat in the Personal Ensign, but a fast track at Keeneland should be much more to her liking.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, I fully expect her to be at her best on Saturday. She will have to chase her rival early, but she has been very successful stalking and pouncing in the past. She is the top pick.

Idiomatic

This daughter of Curlin has quietly put together one of the most consistent seasons of any horse in America. Early in the season, it was coming against lesser caliber competition, but she clearly has improved to become one of the top females in the nation.

Her win over Nest last time in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign was surely helped by the track condition, but still, it was another strong performance during her recent surge.

She also has the speed to go right to the lead and force her rival to chase. I am leaning towards Nest on a fast track, but this streaking filly obviously has a big chance.

Le Da Vida

This 6-year-old daughter of Gemologist finished a dull fifth last time out in the Grade 3 Locust Grove at Churchill Downs. Prior to that, though, she had run a number of solid races.

Her easy win in the Lady Jacqueline at Thistledown three starts back was especially impressive. Bred in Chile, she will be near the back of the pack early on Saturday and look to finish strongly.

The likely third choice should get a piece of the exotics, but passing either of the favorites seems less than likely.

Sixtythreecaliber

If you can draw a line through her wet track performances, this Gun Runner filly has a pretty nice record. On the sloppy surface of the Personal Ensign, she did little and finished last of six.

Before that, however, she was a game winner of a strong allowance race at Saratoga. She has had trouble getting over the hump against some of her rivals in here, but at her best, she does look to be one of the biggest threats to the top two.

Trained by Tom Amoss, she is a graded stakes winner with five wins in nine starts on a fast track. Still, it would be a surprise to see anything better than third on Saturday.

Bellamore

This 5-year-old Empire Maker mare has done most of her racing in California, where she alternated between surfaces. All three of her races in Kentucky in the last 12 months produced pretty solid results, with two seconds and a third.

Most recently, she finished second, but was disqualified to third in the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis at Ellis Park. She does have some good tactical speed to be involved early on Saturday.

Running for a new barn for the first time, I do like her better than some of the longshots, but she looks likely to be racing for a minor share only.

Misty Veil

This daughter of Tonalist has kept good company this year for trainer Mike Maker after being claimed last November.

She has run some good races this year, including a nice second in the DuPont at Pimlico, but has not been able to truly compete for the win of late.

It only gets tougher against Nest and Idiomatic on Saturday. Coming off a well beaten third last time in the Grade 3 Locust Grove, I have a hard time picking her out in this spot.

Malloy

Two starts back, this longshot won a sharp allowance race at Hawthorne Park for trainer Wayne Catalano.

Despite running against cheaper competition, it was enough for her connections to move her up to graded stakes racing. Last time out, she chased the speed of Idiomatic, before packing it in down the stretch.

While the daughter of Outwork has improved of late, she still looks to be overmatched by the class of the top two in this Grade 1 affair.