St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

The St. Louis Cardinals (55-70) and Pittsburgh Pirates (55-69) open up a 3-game set at PNC Park Monday. First pitch is at 7:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cardinals vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Pirates lead 5-2

The Cardinals snapped a 4-game losing skid with a 7-3 victory over the New York Mets Sunday. They remain 13 games out in the NL Central and 10 out of an NL Wild Card in a season that looks increasingly unlikely to lead to October. The Cardinals are going to get a glimpse of the future with newly acquired LHP Drew Rom making his major league debut Monday. Rom came over from the Baltimore Orioles in the trade for RHP Jack Flaherty.

The Bucs have lost 3 of 4 and 6 of 10. In what was once a promising start to the season, they are now 12 1/2 out in the Central and 9 1/2 out of a Wild Card. The Pirates are better at home with a 29-32 mark as opposed to 26-37 on the road.

Cardinals at Pirates projected starters

LHP Drew Rom vs. LHP Bailey Falter

Rom is making his major-league debut. He was 9-6 with a 4.82 ERA, a 1.57 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 through 97 IP with two Triple-A Norfolk and Triple-A Memphis.

• Was 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA, 0.55 WHIP and 18 K in 11 IP at Triple-A Memphis since being acquired by the Cardinals

Falter (0-7, 4.86 ERA) makes his 11th start and 12th appearance. He has a 1.49 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 through 53 2/3 IP with the Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K Tuesday against Mets
• 1 career start vs. Cardinals: No-decision, 4 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 5 K on July 1, 2022

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Cardinals at Pirates odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.

Cardinals at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Pirates 5, Cardinals 2

Neither team is particularly good against left-handed pitching. The Cards are 14-18, and the Pirates are 17-21. Pittsburgh has had St. Louis’ number this year though, and the Pirates swept a 3-game set at home against the Cardinals in June. The Pirates have also gone 7-3 against the Cards over the last 10. Rom’s strikeout numbers are impressive, but he doesn’t throw very hard. There are questions as to how that will translate to the majors.

Take the PIRATES (+105).

These teams play a lot of 1-run games. Three of the 7 meetings this year and 5 of the last 10 have come down to a single run. The Cardinals are 10-23 in 1-run games and the Pirates are 15-13. I personally would just stick to the Pirates on the ML, but if you want some insurance, take PIRATES +1.5 (-150).

This number is inflated because of questions about the quality of pitching Monday. The Over is just 3-5-2 in the last 10 meetings between these sides, St. Louis is 3-7 O/U over the last 10, and Pittsburgh is 6-4.

I’ll take the UNDER 10.5 (-120).

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