Stars Signed In L.A. Have Pushed Dodgers' Odds To The Top
In a team sport like baseball, it’s rare to see World Series odds change dramatically within a couple weeks’ time in the offseason.
But then, it’s even rarer when one team invests a billion dollars in December to lock up both the highest-sought hitter and most coveted pitcher in the free agent market.
That’s exactly what the Los Angeles Dodgers have done this month in reaching long-term deals with Shohei Ohtani, crossing town from the Los Angeles Angels, and Japanese pitching ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Sandwiched between those signings, the team traded for Tampa Bay’s Tyler Glasnow to help anchor next year’s starting rotation.
In eyeing that pre-Christmas shopping spree, which culminated with Thursday’s announcement of the Yamamoto deal, the nation’s top online sports betting sites have all moved L.A. well ahead of the Atlanta Braves as the favorite to win the 2024 World Series.
The biggest move came at Caesars Sportsbook, which has the Dodgers with the shortest MLB title odds, at +350, after listing them early last month at +900, which were their longest odds at the time among seven of the most widely used sports betting apps.
The best reward someone backing Los Angeles can get now from using those legal sports betting sites is the +450 from BetRivers, which moved its line from the +800 it had posted shortly after the end of this year’s World Series, won by the Texas Rangers as a preseason longshot.
While changing the Dodgers’ odds, the sportsbooks have mostly left their top competitors close to where they were, although the New York Yankees have moved up substantially after trading for outfield slugger Juan Soto.
The best return available on other teams perceived as top contenders now are:
- Braves +750 (Caesars)
- Yankees +1000 (BetRivers, bet365)
- Houston Astros +1000 (Caesars, DraftKings, BetMGM, ESPN BET, bet365)
- Rangers +1200 (BetRivers)
- Philadelphia Phillies +1200 (Caesars)
Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024, but …
As evidenced by this year’s World Series involving two longshots — the Arizona Diamondbacks in addition to the Rangers — baseball’s postseason can be as fickle as they come in terms of who gets hot late, and all preseason odds should be taken with clumps of salt.
But there’s no denying the powerhouse that has been created on paper and in the locker room of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The front office has bolstered a team that already won 100 games last year and has made it to the postseason 11 straight times. As any disappointed Dodgers fan can tell you, that success has been outweighed in the end by just one World Series victory in the span — and it was the COVID-shortened season of 2020, to boot.
Now, Ohtani is being added to a lineup that would already have been feared again with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman leading it. In 2023, though a late-season UCL injury limited him to 135 games, Ohtani batted .304 with 44 homers, 95 RBIs, and 20 steals.
Ohtani also won his second American League MVP Award in three years. That was partly due to his freakish ability to pitch so well, which will not be happening in 2024 as he recovers from the elbow injury and is limited to DH duty.
Several sportsbooks have begun posting MVP odds, and they all favor the Braves’ Ronald Acuna Jr. with the shortest odds to repeat the National League award he won this year. One site, Caesars, has Ohtani with the same odds as Acuna, at +550. Others put Ohtani second or third, with Betts also in the mix. The longest Ohtani odds belong to FanDuel, at +1000.
At BetMGM, an MVP bet can be placed on either Ohtani at +875 or the field (every other player in the NL) at -1600.
Also, a bet can be placed at some sites already on how many home runs Ohtani will hit, with the over/under listed at 38.5. BetMGM prices the bet at -115 both ways, while FanDuel uses -120 for the over and -106 for the under.
Maybe he’s Kershaw’s successor
The Yamamoto signing brings to the U.S. a 25-year-old pitcher with the equivalent of three Cy Young Awards already in Nippon Professional Baseball in Japan. For three straight years while pitching for the Orix Buffaloes, he has led his league in wins, ERA, and strikeouts.
It has been rare for the Dodgers to have pitching worries, but it was a top offseason concern this year considering the free agent status of longtime ace Clayton Kershaw and uncertainty over Walker Buehler’s abilities in recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Los Angeles won the war for Yamamoto’s rights over other big-market teams, like the two in New York, that also clearly wanted a young pitcher deemed among the best in the world before even entering an MLB clubhouse. In its Cy Young Award odds, Caesars lists Yamamoto at third in the National League at +1100, behind Spencer Strider and Zack Wheeler.
FanDuel puts the newcomer lower, seventh for the Cy Young among NL pitchers, at +1600. The site puts his season strikeout over/under at 172.5, at -113 both ways.
While most sportsbooks have yet to post regular-season win totals for MLB teams, Caesars has done so. As would be expected from its World Series odds, it is extremely bullish on L.A. in setting the Dodgers’ win total at over/under 103.5.
If it clears that mark, the team might enrich bettors embracing the arrival of the two exciting, Japanese-born stars, but without fans gaining much satisfaction in the end. Los Angeles reached 104 or more wins in 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2022, but with no championship trophy to show from any of those terrific regular seasons.
