Stars vs. Kraken odds, prediction: Bet on fewer fireworks in Game 2
Before the puck drops for Game 2 of the NHL Western Conference series in Dallas, we have a Stars vs. Kraken prediction and best bet.
The Kraken picked up an impressive road overtime win in Game 1 to take the series lead and steal home ice advantage for the series. That win leveled these teams’ season-long series at two wins apiece.
The Stars find themselves in a familiar situation. In their first-round series against the Wild, they dropped the first game in double overtime before picking up a win in Game 2.
Dallas is a sizable -210 favorite on Thursday with the Kraken priced at +170. The total is set at 5.5 goals, juiced -130 to the under.
Stars vs. Kraken Prediction & Best Bet
Total Under 5.5 Goals (-130)
Stars vs. Kraken analysis
Goals came in spades for the first game, but that represented a complete shift in style for both these sides.
During the regular season, the teams relied on quality defensive play to inform their success. Per moneypuck.com, Dallas ranked second in expected goals against at five-on-five while Seattle finished seventh in the category.
Expand the sample to consider expected goals against at all strengths and bettors will find the Stars and Kraken ranked second and eighth, respectively, in that category, again per moneypuck.com.
The teams also possess above-average goaltenders who limited goals against at varying points of the season. Dallas netminder Jake Oettinger ranked seventh in goals saved above average during the regular season, per hockey-reference.com, and has conceded 19 goals vs. 20.6 expected during the playoffs.
Seattle has seen a drastic improvement from Philipp Grubauer during the playoffs. Grubauer posted a negative goals saved above average rating during the regular season, but has conceded only 23 goals off 25.46 expected during the playoffs.
However, Game 1 also saw uncharacteristically bad performances from both goaltenders. Although there were nine goals at five-on-five, that came off only 5.73 expected, according to naturalstattrick.com.
Even if you add in the expected goal tallies at all strengths, it’s still nine goals off only 6.96 expected.
Given both teams possess less-than-impressive offenses, I would expect some regression in Game 2 as both teams revert to strong defensive showings. Add in that both teams are generally good at avoiding the penalty box — Dallas ranked seventh in penalties during the regular season while Seattle ranked 12th — and bettors should expect limited opportunities for bonus goals.
Thus, take the under in Game 2 and hope both goaltenders improve their play from Game 1.
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