Stanley Cup Playoffs: Updated odds, series probabilities and best bets for Wednesday, May 3rd

The opening round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs was chaotic and that’s continued into the conference semi-finals with both Florida and Seattle pulling off big upsets on Tuesday.

Updated Series Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Florida Panthers (-125) vs Toronto Maple Leafs (+105)
• Dallas Stars (-120) vs Seattle Kraken (EVEN)

Updated Series Predictions

Florida Panthers lead series 1-0

The Panthers were lucky that the Maple Leafs didn’t score on the power play (0-4) but Florida played a great game at even strength, owning more than 63 percent of the shots and finishing with roughly the same number of expected goals even after the Maple Leafs, who were trailing 4-2, made a late push. Bettors also made a late push on the home team, who closed between -180 and -200.

By my math, Florida now has a 55 percent chance to win the series, which lines up with sportsbook odds, but the game-to-game pricing seems to differ a bit from my projections. Usually, it all adds up, but I predict Florida has a 40 percent chance of winning Game 2, and the sportsbooks odds reflect anywhere from a 37 to 38.5 percent chance. Toronto will likely win Game 2, but it’s Panthers or nothing at those odds.

Bet: Florida Panthers (Game 2 Moneyline) +160

Sergei Bobrovsky was great in Game 1 and it’s going to be hard to repeat that performance, but if the Panthers continue to play well at even strength, I think these games will be wide open. Toronto hasn’t played well at even strength since Game 2 of the first round and Florida has been trending in the right direction in that regard.

Updated Series Probabilities

Florida Panthers Win Series: 55%

• 4 Games: 8%
• 5 Games: 14%
• 6 Games: 17.5%
• 7 Games: 15.5%

Toronto Maple Leafs Win Series: 45%

• 5 Games: 9%
• 6 Games: 17%
• 7 Games: 19%

Seattle Kraken lead series 1-0

Joe Pavelski returned and scored four goals in Game 1 versus the Kraken, but unfortunately for the Stars, he was the only member of the team to light the lamp. Dallas led 1-0 and 2-1 in the first period but Seattle scored three goals in 52 second to take a 4-2 lead into the second period and it stayed that way until the Stars scored two goals in the third to send the game to overtime. Yanni Gourde scored the winner for the Kraken in the first overtime period.

Seattle didn’t just win the game, though, they controlled it. The Kraken finished with 58 percent of the shot and 56 percent of the expected goals in all situations. They played a good game at even strength, but the Stars obviously made strong push toward the end and had chances to end it in overtime. Jake Oettinger wasn’t bad, but he wasn’t at his best, and Philipp Grubauer saved approximately one goal above expected.

Updated Series Probabilities

Seattle Kraken Win Series: 51%

• 4 Games: 9%
• 5 Games: 13%
• 6 Games: 16%
• 7 Games: 13%

Dallas Stars Win Series: 49%

• 5 Games: 11%
• 6 Games: 18%
• 7 Games: 20%

• New Jersey Devils (EVEN) at Carolina Hurricanes (-120)
• Edmonton Oilers (-120) at Vegas Golden Knights (EVEN)

• New Jersey Devils (-130) vs Carolina Hurricanes (+110)
• Edmonton Oilers (-150) vs Vegas Golden Knights (+130)

Series Previews

All bets tracked via third party app Betstamp.