Statistical Targets for the Trail Blazers This Season
The last time the Portland Trail Blazers “re-built” they made it to the second round of the playoffs in year one. In professional sports, you never know what you’re going to get.
I’m a pretty optimistic person but I’m not sure the current incarnation of the franchise will reach the same lofty heights quite so early. That 2015-16 squad still had a fourth-year Damian Lillard, that year’s Most Improved Player winner CJ McCollum, and a troupe of frisky young role players. The 2023-24 squad will be the Blazers’ first in 11 seasons without the seven-time All Star and even longer without an identifiable on-court leader.
The consolation quorum will be Anfernee Simons, Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, Jerami Grant, Deandre Ayton, Robert Williams III and, for the moment, Malcolm Brogdon. It’s a mix of young, aspiring stars and athletic pre-prime and prime athletes forging a new future with expectations as low as they could possibly be.
Today we fast forward and imagine what kind of season would leave Blazers fans satisfied and optimistic about the future.
First and foremost, wins and losses should be nowhere near the top of the list of priorities. For me, this team, which will likely be subject to deadline deals, could win anywhere between 16 and 34 games. I would lean to the lower end if I were a betting man.
This season will be the very definition of unpredictable. There’ll be some wins and some impressive, exciting losses mixed in with a lot of absolute drubbings. There’ll be 10-12 game losing streaks, concentration lapses, overt confusion, and nights where it will be all over by half time.
It’ll be particularly tough going in a Western Conference where the Blazers and the San Antonio Spurs are likely the only two teams not expected to win big. The key for everyone will be to take joy in the development of this franchise’s next generation.
Tricky Exercise
Below I set out rough statistical and ranking predictions for players to help set rough expectations for this young roster. I’ll disclaim all those numbers by saying all figures need to be tempered and not set in stone because not reaching said goal is not the be-all, end-all.
One night they may come close to knocking off a contending team like the Phoenix Suns. The next night they might lose to a fellow cellar-dweller. This pattern may result in averages not being achieved despite progress still being made.
This team should be fun
What happens when you pair an exciting troupe of rookies and sophomores eager to prove themselves in the NBA with a group of long, athletic, multi-talented, still-youthful vets Entertainment.
I’m not saying Portland will be a ready-made League Pass team from day one. With the speed at which they’re likely to play and young prospects, this team at its best is going to put butts in seats even if it doesn’t happen every night.
Scoot Henderson
The Blazers lucked out at May’s NBA Draft Lottery, climbing to the third pick to select Scoot Henderson out of the G-League Ignite. Many are suggesting Henderson as a number one pick in other non-Victor Wembanyama drafts.
We already know how good a downhill threat Henderson is and we know he’s not a zero on defense. For me, I’m looking for the 19-year-old to show that he has the potential to be an above average shooter. If he can get close to 35 percent on three-to-four attempts a game, I’d be over the moon. I’d be even happier if he can sink a regular portion of his long range shots off the dribble but that might be asking too much early on.
It’d be great if he could crack the top 30 for guards scoring at the rim, that means above 65 percent and if he can jump into the top 35 on assists, at least 5.2 a game, we should all be pleased.
Young Guys
Among the less talked-about members of Portland’s roster are young wings and forwards Jabari Walker, Kris Murray, and Toumani Camara.
Walker is currently the leader of the trio thanks to an actual year of NBA basketball under his belt. Last season, Walker showed real rebounding potential, but it didn’t really show up in the box score — he was 87th in offensive rebounds and 135th in defensive rebounds among bigs. With increased playing time as Jerami Grant’s likely back up, I’d love to see him jump into the top 60 in both categories.
Walker’s long range shooting mechanics are one of the obvious improvements of the summer. He was 163rd in three point shooting among bigs last year. With more looks and a better stroke, he has the potential to break the top 80.
Murray and Camara will no doubt go through growing pains early in the season, likely spending a bit of time with the Rip City Remix. But if they’re able to work their way into the rotation with reliable shooting/scoring and stout defense by season’s end, they could be in a similar spot to where Walker is right now.
Shaedon Sharpe
The easy answer here is 18 points a game on high 30s three point shooting, solid defense and between two-to-three assists and boards a game.
More than that, I need the young Canadian to not go missing for periods during a game like he did last season. Good decision making and consistent activity need to be his mantra because the spectacular stuff is always going to happen.
Without playing a college game prior to joining the league, Sharpe was given a little slack last season. With a year of learning now, he needs to cut out the periods of passivity and poor execution. If he’s going to be the player everyone hopes he is, he needs to show improved shot selection and prove that he can handle a little more responsibility. That’s true even if he ends up coming off the bench.
Deandre Ayton
Ayton needs to return to his status as a multiple-threat scorer, we’re talking top 20 among big men with a 65 percent effective field goal percentage. He’s going to be given more leeway than he did in Phoenix and needs to grab that opportunity with both hands, proving why he was taken with the number one pick in 2018.
The Bahamian also needs to be the defender his athleticism allows for. He’s not yet broken the top 50 in blocks among bigs. For Ayton, top 35 would be a great start in boosting his reputation on that end.
The 25-year-old needs to also establish his pick and roll rapports with both Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons and potentially opening up as a reliable option from long range.
Anfernee Simons
Simons needs to show up in the NBA All Star conversation. He doesn’t need to actually be there in Indiana, but he needs to be seriously mentioned as a potential candidate.
The 24-year-old is now the best offensive player on this roster and will be given every opportunity to put up big numbers.
Last season among combo guards, Simons ranked 45th (51st percentile) for his assist rate last season. I need him jumping into the top 25 while maintaining last year’s scoring efficiency on a higher volume of shots.
Conclusion
This season will be one of the more unique in recent Blazers memory. The definition of success this year is going to be vastly different to success during the Damian Lillard era.
The Blazers are going to be fast and are going to be most effective when the ball moves, but the vacillation between the good and the bad is going to be stark depending on the night.
Forget win and losses, it’s going to be all about the development of and meshing of this young squad. My only advice is to set your expectations low, take joys from the little things, including their development.
