StaTuesday: A look at Twins' World Series odds North News

If you’re a 2000s baby and root for the Minnesota Twins, we’re very sorry. You just don’t get it. 

The true highs of fandom that is – the exuberance of a deep postseason run, all the indescribable feelings that are experienced watching your team realize its potential on the most exclusive MLB stage.

It’s been more than two decades since Minnesota won a playoff series, let alone 19 years since winning a single game. Its last came in the 2004 divisional round against the Yanks. The Twins have lost 18 straight.

But still, fans have shown up. And the franchise has provided slivers of promise, such as claiming AL Central titles in three of the past five seasons (2019, 2020, 2023). Now, its aim is to break a “curse.”

With six games left on its schedule – three at Target Field vs. the Athletics and three on the road at Colorado – Minnesota has its division clinched and is in line to play the last of three AL wild-card teams. 

So, here’s an important question: How are the Twins being perceived? – As pretenders or contenders?

We scanned the web for answers, gathering data on World Series chances. Twins fans may want to brace for the consensus, although it’s hardly surprising. Minnesota is a longer shot … but not the longest!

The Twins have 4.4% odds of winning the Fall Classic per baseball-reference.com. That ranks as the lowest among current division leaders but is greater than several teams projected to make the playoffs.

The same site gives Minnesota a 12.5% chance of winning the American League pennant. That’s better odds than Tampa Bay (11.2%), Toronto (10.8%), Houston (10.4%) and Seattle (4.6%). We’ll take that! 

Fangraphs, unfortunately, thinks less of the Twins. It puts a 2.8% probability on Minnesota adding its first World Series title since 1991, and third overall. Five AL teams currently have better odds – Houston (9.2%), Texas (8.3%), Baltimore (6.1%), Toronto (6.1%) and Tampa Bay (6.0%). Fangraphs is lacking faith.

The Twins have slightly better prospects on playoffstatus.com, at 3%, which is the same as the Blue Jays and a peg above the Astros (2%). Minnesota’s odds of making the division series (55%) and vying for the league championship (24%) are higher than both those clubs (Toronto – 38%, 15%; Houston – 32%, 15%).

As for the bettors out there, where there’s even a little risk there’s the possibility of a sweet payday. 

The Twins are +1800 to win the World Series according to FanDuel and a host of other sports books, including Caesars, BetMGM and DraftKings. Two others, PointsBet and BetRivers, have them at +2000. 

We’ll spell that out for you real quick. … A $10 bet on the Twins to win it all this year could earn $180 or $200. Increase that wager to $50 and a Minnesota world championship would return $900 or $1,000.

We’re not advocating for gambling, of course, especially on a team that’s dropped 18 playoff games in a row. Nevertheless, knowing what Vegas thinks of the Twins seems like somewhat valuable information.

Here’s a final fun fact: Power Rankings Guru reflects Minnesota having a 3.1% increase in odds to win the World Series dating to the beginning of the 2023 campaign. The Twins are at 4.8% and started at 1.7%.

In other words, they have a living, breathing shot, and that’s all anyone needs.