Houston Astros Favored To Win American League Pennant
The Major League Baseball postseason begins Tuesday, with wild card teams fighting to keep their seasons alive. Fortunately for those squads, the 2023 wild card format once again features a best-of-three series rather than a single win-or-go-home matchup.
A wild card team’s margin for error is slim, but it’s larger than it was during the 2012-19 and 2021 seasons. Interestingly, each of the four wild card teams to win Game 1 of their series last season advanced to the next round.
In the American League, the Tampa Bay Rays (-164 to win the series on FanDuel) host the Texas Rangers and the Minnesota Twins (-118 to win the series) host the Toronto Blue Jays beginning Tuesday. All games during the wild card round are hosted by the better seed — in this case, Tampa Bay and Minnesota. Home-field advantage proved minimal in 2022, however, with three of the four road wild card teams advancing to the next round.
The Rays and Blue Jays are two of three American League East teams to make the playoffs, with the Baltimore Orioles earning the No. 1 seed.
Astros the AL betting favorite
Despite the heavy AL East presence in this year’s postseason, it’s the Houston Astros who enter postseason play as the favorite to win the American League.
Houston, the defending World Series champion, is +185 on DraftKings to win the American League. FanDuel lists the Astros, which are in the top 10 in both team ERA and runs scored, as +190 to win the American League. BetMGM and Fanatics Sportsbook each have Houston at +200 to win the pennant. It doesn’t hurt that the Astros wouldn’t have to face Tampa Bay or Baltimore until the American League Championship Series.
Close behind the Astros are the Orioles, who are +250 at BetMGM and FanDuel and +260 at Fanatics to win the American League. Beyond that, DraftKings lists Baltimore at +290 to win the AL.
While Houston boasts tremendous recent postseason experience, the Orioles will play in the postseason for the first time since 2016. Baltimore hasn’t played in a World Series since winning it in 1983.
Behind the Astros and Orioles, the Rays have +550 odds at BetMGM and FanDuel to win the American League. FanDuel gives the Twins +650 odds to win the pennant, while Toronto (+800) and Texas (+900) have even longer odds.
Possible World Series foes
The two teams with the shortest odds to win the World Series, the Atlanta Braves (+260 at FanDuel) and Los Angeles Dodgers (+430), both play in the National League.
Those two teams have the best run differentials in baseball, with the Braves outscoring opponents by 231 runs this season. Atlanta won 104 games, the most of any team.
The Dodgers outscored opponents by 207 runs, as Atlanta and Los Angeles were the only MLB teams to outscore opponents by 200 runs or more over the course of the season. Tampa Bay led the American League with a run differential of +195.
Houston is +500 to win the World Series on FanDuel, with Baltimore at +700 and Tampa Bay at +1200. The Philadelphia Phillies also have +1200 odds, but no other teams have World Series odds shorter than +1500.
Interestingly, BetRivers is one of the few mobile sportsbooks to give the Astros (+475) shorter odds to win the World Series than the Dodgers (+500).
Given the Braves’ and Phillies’ respective talent, Caesars Sportsbook gives the National League East (+210) the shortest odds to be the division of the World Series-winning team, with the AL East (+290) close behind. Odds for the AL West are +340.
