Sunderland vs Newcastle FA Cup predictions, odds & free bets

Sunderland vs Newcastle predictions

Sunderland and Newcastle square off in the Tyne-Wear derby in arguably the pick of the ties in the FA Cup third round on Saturday (12:45pm, ITV1). 

The rivals have not faced each other since March 2016 when the sides played out a 1-1 draw at St. James’ Park.  

Both have had different journeys since. 

Newcastle’s takeover by PIF in December 2021 resulted in the Magpies' charge into the Champions League, while Sunderland endured four years in League One before winning promotion via the play-offs in the 2021/22 campaign. 

However, the Black Cats have a great recent record against the Tynesiders and have avoided defeat in the last nine meetings, last losing in August 2011. 

Indeed, Sunderland won six matches on the bounce between April 2013 and October 2015.

But, that will all count for nothing as the form guide goes out of the window in the FA Cup and a sell-out crowd will greet the teams at the Stadium of Light in the fiercest of derbies. 

Newcastle enter the game in a rut after losing seven of their last eight, including a 4-2 defeat to Liverpool on Monday. 

The FA Cup presents their last chance of silverware this season after crashing out of the EFL Cup and the Champions League as well as being well out of the reckoning in the Premier League. 

Sunderland are chasing promotion from the Championship under new manager Michael Beale, who has won two out of his opening four games since replacing Tony Mowbray in December.  

Football betting sites have installed Newcastle as favourites at 10/13, and you can find a price of 16/5 for the Black Cats to stage the upset. Here are our predictions for the Tyne-Wear derby.

Newcastle to edge tense duel? 

Newcastle enter the game with the weight of expectations to defeat their rivals, although their recent form suggests that it could be an uphill challenge. 

The Magpies have lost their last five Premier League away games, and were defeated by Chelsea in the EFL Cup quarter-finals on penalties on the road.  

They have fared better in cup competitions than in the league, defeating Manchester United 3-0 at Old Trafford and were mere seconds away from beating Chelsea before a Kieran Trippier mistake allowed Mykhailo Mudryk to equalise at the death.  

The Magpies have also been battling an extensive injury list as Nick Pope, Harvey Barnes and Joe Willock are all long-term absentees, while Callum Wilson has since joined his team-mates on the sidelines.

However, Newcastle still have more than enough talent on the pitch with Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon, Joelinton and Bruno Guimaraes among the players costing more than Sunderland’s entire squad. 

So, Eddie Howe’s side will have the edge in quality and the potency of Isak was again on display against Liverpool with a clinical finish. 

Sunderland have lost five out of 13 home matches in the Championship this term, including a 4-0 loss to Middlesbrough. 

The dangerous Jack Clarke along with Jobe Bellingham, Dan Neil and Alex Pritchard will make it a close game, and could allow the hosts to expose a Newcastle side that have been leaky at the back, conceding seven in their last two matches. 

As a result, we’re backing both teams to score at the Stadium of Light, but Newcastle’s quality in the final third may just be too much for the Championship outfit over 90 minutes at odds of 9/4 with Betway. 

Clarke to showcase Premier League credentials 

Clarke has been Sunderland’s standout player in the Championship this season. 

The 23-year-old has scored 12 goals in 26 appearances, although notably only two of his strikes have come at the Stadium of Light, the last of which came in a 3-1 win over Norwich in October. 

Clarke notched his second assist of the season against Preston on Monday, teeing up Nazariy Rusyn to score the Black Cats’ decisive second. 

Clarke had already caught the attention of many Premier League clubs before the start of the season, and Sunderland reportedly knocked back several bids for his signature.

But as Clarke continues to impress the interest will not go away. He now has a national platform to showcase his ability and will relish the challenge against a Newcastle side that have been ropey at the back. 

Trippier missed the Magpies’ defeat to Liverpool, but could return for the derby. His form has been suspect to say the least over the last month, and Clarke could find joy down the Sunderland left.  

Clarke’s driving runs and shooting from distance has caused Championship teams headaches all season, and he is the one player in the Black Cats’ line-up that could make the difference on Saturday. 

We’re backing him to score any time with our second Sunderland vs Newcastle prediction at odds of 10/3 with bet365. 

Will there be a red card at the Stadium of Light? 

The Tyne-Wear derby is a feisty affair and has seen a number of duels over the years. 

It’s not a game for the faint-hearted and there have been five red cards in the last 10 matches, although three of those came in two games in the 2011/12 season. 

Newcastle defender Fabricio Coloccini was the last player to see red in the fixture when he was dismissed in Sunderland’s 3-0 win in October 2015. 

Dan Neil and Trai Hume have been red carded for Sunderland in the Championship this season, both dismissals were for second bookable offences. Neil was sent off in the Tees-Wear derby, earning his second yellow card for dissent.

Newcastle, on the other hand, have managed to keep all 11 players on the field in all competitions this season.

Newcastle have a few players that like to test their boundaries, including Bruno Guimaraes who has accumulated eight yellow cards this term. 

Luke O’Nien and Dan Ballard have racked up the cards for the Black Cats. In a derby, something has to give. So, after looking at betting apps, we’re backing a red card to be shown at 19/5 with Unibet. 

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Simon Sinclair is an experienced sports journalist, who has written for national publications for football, cricket, NFL and many more. He contributes tips on a wide range of sports for The Independent.