Suns-Clippers NBA Playoffs Series Betting Preview: Fourth-seeded Phoenix listed as strong favorite over Los Angeles

When the Suns traded for superstar Kevin Durant — a four-time scoring champ and two-time Finals MVP — the entire NBA universe thought that Phoenix might finally have enough to win a title, not just for the city but also for ringless franchise cornerstones Chris Paul and Devin Booker. Three games into KD's tenure with Phoenix, that notion was already in jeopardy after KD suffered an ankle injury while warming up for his Suns home debut. Now KD's back, but another challenge lies in his and Phoenix's immediate future — fellow two-time Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard and the Los Angeles Clippers. Let's look at the betting odds for Suns-Clippers and help you decide on some bets worth making for this exciting opening-round Western Conference clash.

Quietly, this might be the best series of Round 1 of the 2023 NBA Playoffs, and not just because Durant and Leonard are silent assassins, capable of end-to-end, wire-to-wire domination that only a small percentage of the league can replicate. These are also two teams that check off multiple boxes necessary for strong playoff runs: star power, depth, and good coaching.

Durant may still be a top-five option in this league, but he's arguably Phoenix's second option (which is quite the luxury). Booker has consistently proven himself to be one of the Association's best pure scorers, making many pundits' short lists of top current players. And CP3 remains a lethal playmaker, deadly mid-range shooter, and underrated perimeter defender. When you have a team that has the luxury of making big man and former No. 1 pick DeAndre Ayton its fourth scorer, you have a team that will contend for the championship. 

Los Angeles will be firmly in the mix as long as the Claw is healthy. The ever-focused, machine-like Leonard has gone nuclear since he lost righthand man Paul George to a knee sprain. The fun guy's averages in April: 29.3 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists. His shooting splits in that timeframe are just as impressive (50.6/42.3/88.0). The man is locked in, and his elevated offensive contributions have spaced the floor well for fellow impact players Russell Westbrook, Norm Powell, and to a lesser extent, Eric Gordon. If PG13 only misses a game or two at the start of this series, the Clips could be a dark-horse upset contender.

Los Angeles also has a strong interior game with Ivica Zubac and trade-deadline acquisition Mason Plumlee, both of whom could give Ayton and Suns backup big Bismack Biyombo fits all series. Phoenix has plenty of perimeter firepower to douse the five-seed with a 2-0 series lead before the Clippers even know what hit them. Sure, Phoenix misses three-and-D specialist-turned-star Mikal Bridges and three-point marksman Cam Johnson, both of whom were part of the package that won James Jones the Durant sweepstakes, but the Suns have plenty of serviceable veterans like Torrey Craig, Terrence Ross, and Josh Okogie to hold down their vacated spots. 

We're pumped about this series and think it will be a fun one to bet and watch. Let's take a look at the odds, reveal some stats and betting trends, and make our predictions for the Suns vs. Clippers first-round clash. 

Suns vs. Clippers series odds, picks, predictions

Oddsmakers believe in the Durant factor, as well as the fact that Paul George will likely miss at least a couple more games. At -600, the Suns have an implied winning probability of over 85 percent, ranking as one of the biggest first-round favorites in the West. Their Game 1 lines are also massive: -300 on the moneyline and -7.5 against the spread. Those betting on this series going OVER 5.5 games can find that action at just -110, meaning BetMGM believes Phoenix should have the sweep or gentleman's sweep wrapped up following Game 5 at Footprint Center.

It probably helps that Phoenix has gone 28-13 at home while the Clippers have gone just 21-20 away from Staples Center. It also helps that Monty Williams' squad has gone 18-13-1 against the spread as a home favorite. The Clippers have gone 10-10 ATS as road 'dogs and 4-6 as ATS as home 'dogs. That's a lot of data supporting a Suns pick, especially with the uncertainty around George.

Of course, the uncertainty around George can work both ways. If he comes back for Game 3, his presence on both the offensive and defensive ends will be just in time for L.A.'s must-win game. Remember the old adage "Playoff series don't truly begin until the home team loses"? It's dumb, but in the Clippers' case, it applies. They can safely keep PG13 out for the first two games in Phoenix, bring him back for home wins in Games 3 and 4, and then couple a Game 6 home win with a victory in either Game 5 or Game 7. It won't be easy to steal one on the road, but anything's possible with PG13 and Kawhi on the floor together. 

Let's talk about why the Clippers, who ended the season on a 6-3 run, can make more noise in this series than oddsmakers think. The biggest reason is elevated offense. Thanks to Kawhi turning into the superhuman version of himself and Westbrook finally acclimating with his new squad, the Clips have stepped up at just about every offensive level since the All-Star break. In that span, they have averaged 8.4 more points and four more assists while also substantially improving their shooting splits:

For us, it all boils down to (a) offensive weapons and (b) team defense. The Suns are loaded with microwave scorers all over the floor, while the Clippers often have trouble finding and hitting good looks outside of Leonard. Westbrook has enjoyed a strong April, and Norm Powell has looked every bit like a Sixth Man of the Year contender when healthy this season. We know who Russ is at this point in his career, and he's certainly not the second-best or third-best player on a championship-contending team. We'll give L.A. the benefit of the doubt in the sense that we believe Ty Lue's guys can push this to six games, but we aren't about to go "Kendrick Perkins spicy take" and pick the Clips to mount the massive upset over Phoenix's All-Star core.

Prediction: Suns beat Clippers (-600) in six games (+400). But please, don't bet Phoenix -600 to win the series. We can find much better value if we dig deeper. Read on!

NBA Playoffs 2023 odds: Correct series result for Suns-Clippers

Since we like the Suns to win the series, our best bet is to bet them to win in six games. Whatever you do, don't bet Phoenix at -600 to win the series. Where's the value? You're profiting under $17 on a winning $100 wager! You would be far better off betting their moneyline in the individual home games and, depending on value, their spread in the road contests. The optimal route, in our opinion, is to spread a few bets on the "series result" props that all yield plus odds.

We could understand betting on a series winner without including the total games played if this series was projected to be much closer, like the Warriors-Kings' NorCal battle or the Cavs-Knicks dogfight. Considering we have a relatively high confidence level in the much more talented and deeper Suns to prevail over the Clippers, we can realistically narrow down the series result to Suns in five, six, or seven games.

My prediction and betting pick is Suns 4-2, which yields +400, but if you wanted to be conservative and greatly increase your odds of winning money, you could divide your Suns-Clippers series budget three ways and bet a third on Suns in five, a third on Suns in six, and a third on Suns in seven.  A $33 bet and win on either +400 prop would net $132, while a $33 bet and win on the +240 prop would fetch just under $80 profit.

Betting advice: The best bet: put $100 on the Suns to win series 4-2 (+400). The conservative bet to greatly increase your chances of winning but simultaneously reduce your total payout: bet $40 on Suns 4-1 (+240), $30 on Suns 4-2 (+400), and $30 on Suns 4-3 (+400). Obviously, we also like the OVER on the 5.5 total games prop (-110). 

NBA Playoffs 2023 odds: Game/Series double prop for Suns-Clippers

This is another way to avoid the heavy juice of Phoenix's Game 1 moneyline (-300) as well as the super-juiced Suns' series win (-600). Betting the Suns to win Game 1 and the series at -250 is a nice little parlay that makes a ton of sense. Historically, teams that win Game 1 of a best-of-seven series go on to win the series over 75 percent of the time. Teams that win Game 1 of a best-of-seven on their home floor win the series over 85 percent of the time. The Suns have tremendous home-court advantage, posting a .682 winning percentage at Footprint, and we love them to take care of business in the first and last game of the series.

Betting advice: Go with the Suns to win Game 1 and Suns to win the series (-250).