Suns vs. Lakers Predictions, Picks & Odds: Can Los Angeles Secure Crucial Win Against Phoenix?

sportsbookreview.com

07 April 2023

The Los Angeles Lakers welcome the Phoenix Suns to town for a crucial regular-season matchup. Read on for our Suns vs. Lakers prediction based on the best NBA odds.

After falling to the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday, the Lakers (41-39) can’t afford another misstep during the final weekend of the regular season if they hope to avoid the play-in tournament. A win against the Suns coupled with a loss for the Golden State Warriors could go a long way in doing just that.

Fortunately, for the Lakers, the Suns (45-35) have nothing to play for and are on the second leg of a back-to-back after being pushed to the brink by a depleted Denver Nuggets squad Thursday night. With the No. 4 seed already locked up, Phoenix is expected to rest most of its starting rotation.

Editor's note: After this story was published, Phoenix announced that Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton are all out for Friday's matchup in Los Angeles.

The Lakers are being priced as double-digit favorites. But is that the correct call, or should we look elsewhere for value in this late-night showdown?

Here is our best Suns vs. Lakers prediction (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Suns vs. Lakers prediction

Austin Reaves Over 19.5 points + assists (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Bet $5, Win $150 in Bonus Bets

Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Chris Paul are all listed as TBD on the Suns’ injury report, as head coach Monty Williams hinted in Thursday’s presser that those stars could play in the first half against the Lakers. Of course, they could also not play at all after each of them logged 37 or more minutes in a 119-115 win over Denver.

But the dirty little secret about if these players don’t go (or only play one half) is that it could alter the Lakers’ strategy, too. If Phoenix is shorthanded, LeBron James or Anthony Davis (both questionable) could ultimately be rested. Though avoiding the play-in tournament is the goal, the health of those two stars is paramount heading into the postseason.

With so much uncertainty, I like the idea of betting on perhaps the most reliable Lakers player of late. Reaves has become a legitimate high-end rotation player, averaging 12.9 points per game to go along with 3.3 assists and three rebounds during his second season.

Over the last 10 games, Reaves has seen his averages climb up to 20 points, 5.8 assists, and four rebounds per outing. He’s not afraid of the moment, as evidenced by his pull-up jumper during an overtime win against the Utah Jazz earlier this week. He’s also getting to the line at an absurd rate, attempting double-digit free throws in back-to-back games.

Reaves has cleared this number in eight of his last nine games, regardless of who is in the lineup with him. We project this number well north of 20, with room to grow depending on the availability of Davis and James. That's why this is a four-star play amid a week of uncertainty.

Suns vs. Lakers best odds

DraftKings (-125)

Only three of our five top-rated sportsbooks have listed a line for Reaves at the time of this writing, but those shops are in agreement that this number should be 19.5. We prefer placing this bet at DraftKings because it opens the door for some same-game parlay options.

This four-star pick is playable up to -140 before we'd pass on this prop entirely. Reaves' assist mark is set at 3.5 for this matchup, a line that he has cleared in seven of his last nine outings.

Suns vs. Lakers odds

Suns vs. Lakers odds analysis

The Lakers opened as 7-point favorites, but the spread has experienced one-way movement ever since. Bettors are making a guess that the Suns won’t play their key starters, which is why the line is now up to 11 at most of our top-rated sportsbooks.

Interestingly enough, the total hasn’t moved nearly as much. The consensus line is now 226.5 after starting at 228.5 when betting lines were first released late Thursday night.

Phoenix is 42-37-1 against the spread this season and 40-39-1 to the Over. Los Angeles has a 39-40-1 ATS clip with a 41-38-1 record to the Over.