Suns vs Nuggets Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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05 March 2024

Suns vs Nuggets Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Phoenix Suns seemed to have the best trio heading into the season but have yet to fully put it all together. With Booker still out and PHX having to travel to Denver, our NBA picks don't expect much fun to be had for the visitors.

Just how much can Kevin Durant carry at age 35? The Phoenix Suns may remain Devin Booker’s franchise, but with Booker out tonight, the onus will fall on Durant and — to a lesser extent — Bradley Beal.

The Denver Nuggets and MVP frontrunner are healthy favorites according to NBA odds thanks in part to Booker’s absence tonight, but also because the defending champs have been on a tear since the All-Star Break. With first place in the Western Conference still very much within reach, Denver appears to be on a mission.

Is that enough reason to indulge in this hefty spread? Let’s take a look in my free NBA picks for the Suns vs Nuggets on March 5.

Suns vs Nuggets odds

Suns vs Nuggets predictions

No one denies the Phoenix Suns theoretical quality. The offensive potential of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal should make any postseason opponent uncomfortable.

But that is all it has been. Theoretical and potential, not realized or enjoyed. And lately, it has been even worse.

The Suns have played the Houston Rockets three times since the All-Star Break, a scheduling oddity that begs questions of the NBA decision-makers. Despite their fall down the Western Conference standings, the Rockets’ defense has remained staunch, ranking No. 7 in defensive rating on the season at 112.5.

Let’s use that as a comparison point, given the Nuggets’ defensive rating since the All-Star Break has been 106.2, No. 4 in the league, despite facing teams above .500 in four of their six games.

Phoenix fell short of its team total in all three of those games against the Rockets, those team totals ranging from 118.5 to 120.5, and the Suns never scoring more than 110 points. And that was all with Devin Booker.

Without him, Phoenix’s offensive rating falls by 6.2 points this season, an 11-game sample size that calls for some trust.

Bringing that lesser version of an offense that already isn’t humming to face a defense surging when it matters most should be a recipe for more Suns’ disappointment tonight.

My best bet:Suns team total Under 107.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

Suns vs Nuggets same-game parlay

Suns team total Under 107.5

Kevin Durant Over 27.5 points

Durant Under 2.5 made threes

The initial thought here of adding the Over on the Kevin Durant points prop was largely a want to create a counter-intuitive combination that would lead the sportsbook math to aggressively inflate the payout of this same-game parlay. A Suns’ player’s Over on points combined with the team total Under creates such a conflicting piece of logic.

But it extends beyond that. Durant is averaging 3.4 more points per game without Booker than with him, logical given how much of the offense has to then hinge on Durant. In six of those 11 games, Durant scored 30 or more. In one more he poured in 28.

But Durant also takes 0.9 fewer 3-pointers when Booker is out for the night, making just 1.7 per game. He has made at least three in only two of those 11 games.

So, as counter-intuitive as it all seems, the most likely outcome for Durant without Booker is plenty of points but nearly all of them coming inside the arc. And that exact want bothers the sportsbook algorithm in a way that benefits our parlay.

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Suns vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis

The Nuggets opened as nine-point favorites on Monday evening, a number that quickly reached -9.5 before bouncing between the two well into Tuesday.

Given they are the defending champions led by the best player in the game, and knowing the home-court advantage in Denver has always been renowned, it's not shocking the Nuggets have been favored by at least 6.5 points in 19 of 29 home games this season. They have gone 9-10 against the spread in those moments.

This total opened at 223 and climbed to 224 only after lunchtime on Tuesday. With the bounty of reasons to doubt Phoenix’s offense, the total feels too high.

Suns vs Nuggets betting trend to know

The Suns' last seven games have all fallen Under their pregame totals by an average of 10.1 points per game. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Nuggets.

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