Sweet 16 Odds for Every Game Plus Best Bets for Thursday and Friday
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The Sweet 16 matchups are set for the 2023 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. Bettors have now had roughly three days to move the opening odds and the spreads, moneylines, and totals have settled comfortably.
The table below lists the full slate of odds for all eight games, which start with Michigan State vs. Kansas State at 6:30 p.m. EST on Thursday and culminate with Xavier vs. Texas at 9:45 p.m. EST on Friday. Under the table, find my two favorite bets for the 2023 Sweet 16.
Sweet 16 Odds - 2023 NCAA Tournament
Unsurprisingly, the largest spread on the board involves No. 15 Princeton. The 2023 version of Cinderella is catching 9.5 points in its Sweet 16 matchup with No. 6 Creighton.
The narrowest spreads are found in No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 3 Gonzaga, where the Bruins are two point chalk, and No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 3 Kansas State, where the worse-seeded Spartans are actually two-point favorites.
Sweet 16 Best Bet #1: FAU +5.5 (-110) vs. Tennessee
The No. 9 seed in the East Region, Florida Atlantic has been among the best teams in the country all season. Now 33-3 on the year, the Owls' only setbacks have come in true road games (at Ole Miss, at UAB, and at Middle Tennessee). They are a perfect 5-0 in neutral-site games, including the C-USA Tournament and NCAA Tournament.
In the first round, they took down the red-hot Memphis Tigers (66-65), a team many pundits had going deep into the tournament.
On Thursday, FAU faces a tenacious, slow-paced, defense-oriented Tennessee. Missing point guard Zakai Zeigler, Tennessee was a popular target in upset-minded brackets. But the Vols held off a challenge from No. 13 Louisiana (58-55) in the first round and then ran away from No. 5 Duke in the second (65-52) as three-point underdogs.
Their defense, which rates best in the nation per KenPom, has been as advertised. The Blue Devils shot just 27-percent from three and had an ugly 10-to-15 assist-to-turnover ratio as a team.
But as good as Tennessee has been, as great as their defense is, expecting the Vols to cover a 5.5-point spread against a tremendous FAU team is too much to ask. Their slow-paced style leads to lower-scoring games in general, and fewer possessions makes it more difficult to cover big spreads.
I think FAU has a real shot to win this game and like their value at +195 on the moneyline, but my pick here is FAU to cover.
This game tips at 9 p.m. EST on Thursday, March 23, at Madison Square Garden in New York City.
Pick: FAU +5.5 (-110)
Sweet 16 Best Bet #2: Princeton +9.5 (-110) vs. Creighton
My second pick for the Sweet 16 is another underdog to cover a big spread. Princeton's berth in the Sweet 16 is not a fluke. The Tigers have been on a tear the past month, going 7-1 with their only loss coming in OT to Yale (64th at KenPom). They avenged that setback in the Ivy League title game, beating favored Yale 74-65. While they have suffered their share of losses (23-8) while only playing the country's 173rd-toughest schedule, only one of those came by double digits: an 87-65 loss at Yale in late January.
Princeton plays disciplined defense, runs its offense methodically, and has better athletes than many people expect from the Ivy. Their frontcourt combination of Tosan Evbuomwan and Keeshawn Kellman, both seniors, will make life difficult for 7-foot Creighton center Ryan Kalkbrenner.
Make no mistake. The Bluejays are a deep, balanced team with the talent to win a national championship. Sportsbooks realized this when they listed Creighton around +2400 to win the national championship back in November 2022, and they enter the Sweet 16 with the fifth-best odds to win the NCAA Tournament. Their guard trio of Trey Alexander, Baylor Scheierman, and Ryan Nembhard creates matchup nightmares everywhere on the court.
But only one team has managed to beat Princeton by double digits this season, and that was months ago in a true road game. With Thursday's game in Louisville - almost exactly halfway between Omaha and Princeton - expect the crowd to rally behind the big underdog.
This game tips at 9 p.m. EST on Friday, March 24, at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, KY.
Sports Betting Dime provides exclusive sports-betting content to Newsweek, including picks, analysis, tools and sportsbook offers to help bettors get in on the action. Please wager responsibly.
