Tampa Bay Picks: Kentucky Derby Prep Analysis

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09 February 2024

Tampa Bay Picks: Kentucky Derby Prep Analysis

Tampa Bay Downs will run one of its major Kentucky Derby preps on Saturday. The Sam F. Davis will award points to the top finishers and could put a horse firmly on the Derby trail. Check out our Tampa Bay picks!

Full Card Analysis

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Tampa Bay Picks- 1

Post: 12:27 PM ET; $18k Claiming going 6 f on dirt; Entries: 12

#2 CHARLIE LIGHTNING (7-2): Gets the top selection. He will run for the combination of Crichton and Arroyo. This one will likely be out on or near the lead and will look to hold off the charge to the wire.
#5 WILD TIME (5-2): Will be competitive in this spot. He will run for the combination of Robertson and Gomez. This one will likely get the right setup in this race.
#1 CIRCLE THE MOON (9-2): Feels like a fringe contender in this spot. He makes sense on speed figures. This one is the class of the field.
#12 MEROKEE (12-1): Is a price horse and isn’t without hope. He goes out for the Dini barn and gets Marin in the irons. This one comes into the race in really good form.

Selections: 2 – 5 – 1 – 12

Tampa Bay Picks- 2

Post: 12:57 PM ET; $53k Maiden Special Weight going 1 mile 40 y on dirt; Entries: 6

#2 HEARTENED (1-1): Gets the top selection. He is a dangerous threat to get loose on the front end.
#5 IDLE UNION (9-2): Has a shot in this race. He projects to sit mid-pack and come with one run. This one has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.
#1 NIMMO (15-1): Is a price horse and isn’t without hope. He will be rolling late and has a good closing kick that could get the job done here. This one goes out for the Orseno barn and gets Marin in the irons.
#6 SMOOTH PLAYER (6-1): Is probably best to put underneath on most tickets. He goes out for the Avila barn and gets Olivero in the irons.

Selections: 2 – 5 – 1 – 6

Tampa Bay Picks- 3

Post: 1:27 PM ET; $53k Maiden Special Weight going 6 f on dirt; Entries: 8

#4 FLUFFY (9-2): Gets the top selection. She runs races good enough to beat this group. This one comes into the race in really good form.
#7 THE DOVE RULES (5-2): Should improve off the first start and is a major player in this race. She runs races good enough to beat this group. This one has solid early pace figures in a race that looks to lack a ton of front-running speed.
#8 BOLDLY FORWARD (7-2): Debuts here and will be competitive in this spot. She will run for the combination of Rodriguez and Gallardo.
#2 QUALIFICATA (3-1): Will be competitive in this spot. She is a dangerous threat to get loose on the front end.

Selections: 4 – 7 – 8 – 2

Tampa Bay Picks- 4

Post: 1:57 PM ET; $25.5k Claiming going 1 1/8 m on turf; Entries: 14

#14 GRADED ON A CURVE (9-2): Gets the top selection. He goes out for the Delgado barn and gets Centeno in the irons.
#5 INITFORTHELOVE (6-1): Is a major player in this race. He runs races good enough to beat this group. This one will run for the combination of Bennett and Camacho.
#11 MEGACITY (6-1): Will be competitive in this spot. He runs evenly and will get a very fair pace scenario here. This one has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here.
#12 BARLEEWON (15-1): Is a price horse and has a shot in this race. He makes sense on speed figures.

Selections: 14 – 5 – 11 – 12

Tampa Bay Picks- 5

Post: 2:27 PM ET; $150k Suncoast S. going 1 mile 40 y on dirt; Entries: 6

#4 LIFE TALK (3-5): Gets the top selection. She has tactical speed and can sit just off the leaders for a stalk and pounce trip. This one runs really consistent pace figures which should work well in a moderately paced race.
#2 POWER SQUEEZE (5-2): Feels like a fringe contender in this spot. She runs evenly and will get a very fair pace scenario here. This one has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.
#6 GORGEOUS GIRL (10-1): Is a price horse and seems to be running for the minor placings in this contest. She is the class of the field.
#1 WHOCOULDASKFORMO (6-1): Seems to be running for the minor placings in this contest. She has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts. This one will run for the combination of Mcgaughey and Gaffalione.

Selections: 4 – 2 – 6 – 1

Tampa Bay Picks- 6

Post: 2:59 PM ET; $53k Allowance Optional Claiming going 1 m on turf; Entries: 9

#1 CAMILA T (6-1): Gets the top selection. She runs races good enough to beat this group. This one goes out for the Avila barn and gets Olivero in the irons. Bet the longshot play of the card at BetOnline.
#2 DESTINY STAR (10-1): Is a price horse and feels like a fringe contender in this spot. She makes sense on speed figures.
#5 BOURBON BREEZE (3-1): Is probably best to put underneath on most tickets. She runs races good enough to beat this group. This one has tactical speed and can sit just off the leaders for a stalk and pounce trip.
#8 SPUTNIK (9-5): Should improve off the first start and is probably best to put underneath on most tickets. She goes out for the Casse barn and gets Gallardo in the irons. This one will likely have a lot to do in the lane but could get up with a competitive run.

Selections: 1 – 2 – 5 – 8

Tampa Bay Picks- 7

Post: 3:43 PM ET; $50k Minaret S. going 6 f on dirt; Entries: 9

#2 CHI TOWN LADY (5-2): Gets the top selection. She is the class of the field.
#3 UNIFYING (4-1): Is a major player in this race. She has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.
#6 BAZINGA C (15-1): Is a price horse and will be competitive in this spot. She makes sense on speed figures. This one will run for the combination of Joseph and Meneses.
#8 POIEMA (8-1): Will be competitive in this spot. She is the class of the field.

Selections: 2 – 3 – 6 – 8

Tampa Bay Picks- 8

Post: 4:15 PM ET; $100k Pelican S. going 6 f on dirt; Entries: 8

#2 NAKATOMI (9-5): Gets the top selection. He runs races good enough to beat this group. Bet today’s best Best Bet at BetUS.
#7 SIBELIUS (3-1): Will be competitive in this spot. He has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.
#8 CARAMEL CHIP (12-1): Is a price horse and has a shot in this race. He may benefit from a hot pace up front. This one has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.
#6 LITTLE VIC (6-1): Feels like a fringe contender in this spot. He makes sense on speed figures.

Selections: 2 – 7 – 8 – 6

Tampa Bay Picks- 9

Post: 4:45 PM ET; $53k Maiden Special Weight going 1 1/16 m on turf; Entries: 10

#1 STENTS AND STATINS (4-1): Should improve off the first start and gets the top selection. She has been really solid in recent starts and should be ready to run a big one here. This one makes sense on speed figures.
#4 VICTORIA’S DANCER (15-1): Is a price horse and has a shot in this race. She is the class of the field. This one has the pedigree to be a major player in this spot.
#5 BELLE OF RIGHTS (4-1): Debuts here and feels like a fringe contender in this spot. She will run for the combination of Mcgaughey and Ortiz.
#8 GOSSIPER (9-2): Should improve off the first start and isn’t without hope. She runs races good enough to beat this group. This one is well-bred for this spot.

Selections: 1 – 4 – 5 – 8

Tampa Bay Picks- 10

Post: 5:15 PM ET; $250k Sam F. Davis S. going 1 1/16 m on dirt; Entries: 12

#7 COPPER TAX (5-1): Gets the top selection. He has been running against decent company. This one has the top overall power rating in the group.
#9 CHANGE OF COMMAND (3-1): Will be competitive in this spot. He makes sense on speed figures.
#10 WEST SARATOGA (8-1): Will be competitive in this spot. He makes sense on speed figures. This one is the class of the field.
#4 CRAZY MASON (10-1): Is a price horse and will be competitive in this spot. He projects to sit mid-pack and come with one run. This one has been running against decent company.

Selections: 7 – 9 – 10 – 4

Tampa Bay Picks- 11

Post: 5:45 PM ET; $53k Allowance going 1 m on turf; Entries: 12

#3 ROYALTY INTEREST (2-1): Gets the top selection. She will run for the combination of Brown and Cheminaud.
#8 EMBRACE ME (12-1): Is a price horse and is a major player in this race. She should be sitting in the second tier of runners and looking to make one well-timed run at the leaders. This one runs evenly and will get a very fair pace scenario here.
#12 DOUBLE COSMO GIRL (10-1): Is a price horse and is a major player in this race. She has proven to be able to handle these conditions in previous starts.
#5 ARTIFACT (12-1): Is a price horse and will be competitive in this spot. She projects to sit mid-pack and come with one run. This one goes out for the Ferraro barn and gets Camacho in the irons.

Selections: 3 – 8 – 12 – 5