Tampa Bay Rays win total odds: Over/under prediction for 2023
The Tampa Bay Rays lead the AL East and look to win the division for the third time in four years. It is time to continue our MLB odds series with a Tampa Bay Rays win total prediction and pick.
The mark is set at 95.5 games this year for the Rays, and they have hit that before. In 2021 the Rays were a 100-win team. That year, they sat at 53-37 heading into the All-Star Break, 1.5 games behind the Boston Red Sox. They finished the season going 47-25 to end at 100 wins and a division title. This year, they are already five games ahead of that pace, sitting at 58-35. They have the second-best record in all of baseball currently. Still, after losing two of three of the Braves, and seven of their last ten, the lead is now just two games in the division.
Still, the Rays are the favorite to win the AL East for the fourth time in franchise history. In 2020, had they played over 60 games, they were on pace for over 100. In 2010, when they won the division for the first time, they hit 96 wins. Each time they have won the division, they have been over the 95.5 win mark or had the win percentage to do so.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
MLB Odds: Tampa Bay Rays Win Total Odds
Over 95.5 games: -120
Under 95.5 games: +100
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Why The Rays Will Win 95.5 Games
The Rays may be one of the most complete teams in baseball. On the offensive end they are second in the majors in runs scored this year. Meanwhile, they are sixth in batting average, fifth in on-base percentage, and fourth in slugging.
Randy Arozarena is leading the way for them. He is tied for 14th in the majors with 58 RBIs, while also hitting 13 home runs and batting .279. That gives him a 22nd ranks OPS on the season. The good news for fans of the Rays, in his career, his tOPS+, which measures a player against himself with the average production being 100, goes up in the second half of the season. For his season Arozarena has a tOPS+ of 112 in the second half, while his batting average improves by 30 points and his slugging improves by over 70 points.
Yandy Diaz is hitting well this year, sitting third in the majors in batting average. This has led to him scoring a team-leading 58 times this year, good for 17th in the majors. Like Arozarena, he has been better in the second half of the season, where he has seen his run production and slugging both increase. His best months have been July and August in his career, and he will be looking to continue that trend.
This is all excluding Wander Franco, who is second in the majors in WAR this year and leads the American League. While it is still early in his career, he is having the best offensive and defensive season of his career. In his young career, he has a tOPS+ of 121 in the second half of the season. This is a trend for the Rays. Of their primary players on offense, a majority have performed better in the second half of the season.
On the pitching side, they have the fourth-best team ERA, third-best WHIP, and are first in opponent batting average. This is led by Shane McClanahan who is second in the majors in ERA this year. The best month of McClanahan's career numbers comes in September, followed closely by August. Even better, with four days of rest or less, McClanahan still has a tOPs+ of 98, meaning he does not drop off a lot without a bunch of rest.
Why The Rays Won't Win 95.5 Games
Wander Franco, Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena, and Isaac Paredes all lead the team in terms of WAR. It has already been noted, Wander Franco is having the best first half of a season in his career. It is not close either, as this is by far his best run production, slugging, and barrel contact in the first half of a season in his career.
Yandy Diaz is also on the pace season of his career. He made his first All-Star team this year and has hit best batting average, OBP, and slugging of his career so far. The same is close to true for Randy Arozarena. His OPS+ is currently 141. The only time in his career he had a higher OPS+ was in 2020 when he went off in the playoffs and played just 23 games. That still made him eligible to be called a rookie the next year. Paredes is in the same position as the others. He has never hit this well or had this level of slugging in his career. With 16 home runs, he is already just four away from his career high.
All of these players are young though. The Rays started hot and have waned as of late. If these players start regressing toward career norms, instead of continuing the best seasons of their careers, the Rays will start losing.
Further, the Rays still have eight games against Baltimore, three games against Texas, six games against Toronto, three against Houston, and six against the Yankees. That is a combined 26 games against the five other top teams in the American League. If they go 13-13 in those games, they would have to go 25-18 against every other team they face. While that is doable, it would be a tough assignment for a team that faltered going into the All-Star break.
Final Tampa Bay Rays Win Total Prediction
The Rays are the favorite to win the division. They still have a lot of difficult games left, including 27 games against the division that is all above .500 on the year. Still, one or more of those teams should fall off down the stretch. After August 25th, they only play two series against a team that is currently under .500. First is a three-game set with the Twins, and then a three-game set with the Angels. Both teams are just one game under .500. The schedule is brutal. They only play 12 games in their remaining 69 games against teams that are not within five games of a playoff spot. Still, they need to just play .550 baseball to hit 96 wins. The best pick is the over, but it may be close.
Final Tampa Bay Rays Win Total Prediction: Rays Over 95.5 wins (-120)
