Temple vs. Rutgers Odds, Picks, Predictions I College Football Betting
The Temple Owls play the Rutgers Scarlet Knights on Saturday, and we have a Rutgers vs. Temple prediction and pick.
These former Big East conference foes have battled plenty over the years. They also scheduled non-con games against each other in 2021 and 2022, with Rutgers winning both.
However, Temple was feisty last season against Rutgers, and the Owls should be feisty again.
So, we’re betting on the Owls as moderate road dogs in this Week 2 tilt.
Read on for Rutgers vs. Temple odds and a best bet.
Temple vs. Rutgers prediction: Analysis
The Owls barely escaped Week 1 with a win, beating Akron by three as 9.5-point favorites.
However, that game wasn’t as close as the final score. Temple out-gained Akron 353 yards to 279, with the Owls generating 20 first downs to the Zips’ 13.
Temple created seven scoring opportunities (drives past the opponent’s 40-yard line) but came away with only 24 points (3.4 Points per Opportunity). Meanwhile, Akron created only two scoring opportunities but came away with two touchdowns.
Temple should’ve won that game by at least seven. The Owls dominated that game but failed to capitalize in the most critical part of the field.
In the long run, I expect some positive offensive and defensive Points per Opportunity regression.
The Owls are undervalued overall. Temple took a huge step forward last season in head coach Stan Drayton’s first year. Their three-win record doesn’t show it because the Owls were -11 in turnover differential and 0-4 in one-score games.
Turnovers and one-score games are highly variable and don’t translate year over year. The 2022 Owls were better than their record, and I expect the team to win more games with better turnover and close-game luck.
It’s already started to happen, given the Owls are 1-0 in one-score games this year.
An example of Temple’s bad luck last season includes the game against Rutgers. The Owls lost 16-14 despite out-gaining Rutgers by 63 yards — a costly pick-six from E.J. Warner was the difference maker.
While Warner and Temple lost that game, the Owls covered an 18-point spread and found their future quarterback.
Warner, son of Hall of Famer Kurt Warner, made only his second FBS appearance in that game (he was a true freshman). He struggled but showed poise and led two touchdown drives.
The young Warner improved vastly as the season progressed. He finished the year by tossing for 10 touchdowns and only two picks over his final four games, shredding Houston and East Carolina in one-score losses.
Some of his throws were jaw-dropping.
Warner was named AAC Rookie of the Year for his efforts.
With another year together in the same system, Warner, Drayton and the Owls should improve vastly. Better yet, we can directly compare those year-over-year improvements against the same opponent, Rutgers.
The on-field matchup isn’t ideal for Temple, given the Scarlet Knights like to run the ball, and the Owls can’t defend the rush. Meanwhile, the Owls can’t run the football, so Warner must carry his team against a Rutgers defense that pairs a solid pass rush with a rock-solid secondary.
However, I think Temple should improve in the trenches.
They have a talented linebacker corps (led by Jordan Magee and Yvandy Rigby). And after adding former Wisconsin defensive end Darian Varner from the portal, they should see some improved defensive line play.
Meanwhile, the Owls boast a somewhat experienced offensive line, including four players who started seven games last season. Warner might not be well-protected, but he’ll be better protected than last season — he was only sacked 10 times but avoided constant duress with a quick release.
Besides, Rutgers can’t score, anyway. Rutgers was a bottom-20 FBS team last season in Expected Points Added per Rush (114th) and EPA per Pass (121st).
Head coach Greg Schiano returns only six offensive starters from that squad. New-ish starting quarterback Gavin Wimsatt is dangerous with his legs but cannot complete a forward pass (44.8% completion last season).
The Knights put up 24 points in a 17-point win against Northwestern in Week 1, but that’s not impressive given the state of the Wildcats program.
Generally, Rutgers is not built to blow out opponents or win by double digits.
While the Knights have key schematic advantages in this game, the Owls kept it close against Rutgers last season and should keep it again this year, considering the projected improvements.
Ultimately, this should be an ugly but competitive game. Rutgers’ defense always shows up, but the offense can’t score, and Warner should do enough to keep this game within one score for 60 minutes.
The Action Network App’s PRO model projects Rutgers as only a six-point favorite on Saturday, so grabbing Temple at +9 (-110) at DraftKings is a solid bet.
Temple vs. Rutgers pick
Temple +9 (-110) | Play to +7.5 (-110)
Spread: Temple +9 (-110) vs. Rutgers -9 (-110)
Moneyline: Temple (+270) vs. Rutgers (-360)
Total: Over 44 (-110) | Under 44 (-110)
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