Texas season preview by the numbers
Before the 2022 Texas Longhorns football season kicks off, I thought we would look at a few advanced metrics evaluating the Sarkisian scheme from last year and predict how Texas will perform. Quinn Ewers was named the new starting quarterback, Isaiah Neyor and Junior Angilau were lost, and Texas’ toughest matchups are spread out.
Sark's offense depends on the running of Bijan Robinson. He has a young, talented offensive line. Teams with more explosiveness have gone on to win their matchups 86 percent of the time. Texas did well in this category with Worthy and Whittington contributing the most. The table below uses EPA (Expected Points Added) to look at the contribution of each player. It takes into account the down, yards gained, and field position. The results are averages of last year's performances. They are not projections. For the 2022 season, the table includes the full slate of opponents.
PFF released their Preseason All-Big 12 teams and Texas fell short in defense. DeMarvion Overshown made the first team and Moro Ojomo and Ryan Watts made third team. Texas has an abundance of stars on offense but a weak defensive back unit. Texas only had better rates than UL, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, TCU, and Kansas. Other teams like Ohio State and Michigan State have a tougher schedule. Alabama and Georgia are in a league of their own with championship-caliber defenses.
Texas kicks off against Louisiana-Monroe at 7 p.m. Central on Saturday. It's expected to be an easy game, but it's also an opportunity for the offense to experiment with new talent and depth to fill key positions. Monroe's quarterback Chandler Rogers went 112-of-170 passing last year, tallying 1,311 yards through the air and 367 on the ground. Their backfield consists of Andrew Henry, Malik Jackson, Boogie Knight, Will Derrick and Zach Jackson. On the defense, Zack Woodard had 89 tackles and 3.5 sacks last season, while Jabari Johnson had 57 tackles, and Quae Drake had 54 tackles.
Texas has a difficult schedule this season. They play Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Baylor, who are all ranked in the preseason AP Top 25. If they show out through the first half of the season, they could finish with a record of 9-3.
