No. 21 Texas vs. No. 12 Washington advanced stats preview

The No 21 Texas Longhorns are playing in the Valero Alamo Bowl in San Antonio this Thursday at 8 p.m. Central. The Longhorn's are favored by 3.5 points. Washington is 10-2 and Texas is 8-4.

No. 21 Texas will play in the bowl game against No. 12 Washington. Running backs Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson are declaring for the draft and opting out of the game. Quarterback Quinn Ewers has had a solid season. The Huskies run defense ranks 35th in nation, allowing 127 yards per game, but it's not the best passing defense. The best players in their defense are defensive tackle Tuli Letuligasenoa, nickel Dominique Hampton and strong safety Alex Cook. Hudson Card has entered the transfer portal and committed to Purdue.

Washington's offense is led by quarterback Michael Penix Jr. The team has a lot of talented receivers. Texas' defense has struggled against high-powered passing offenses. Texas plays Washington in the Alamo Bowl on Thursday. It's a game of advanced stats. They compare the stats for the offensive and defensive sides. Washington's offensive line has been resilient with one of the lowest sack rates this season. Their defensive lines have only five percent havoc rates. This amplifies their passing ability.

After the TCU game, I updated the graph showing the distribution of Texas expectation versus performance of their opponents. The graph shows that Texas' opponents are always disappointing. Washington's opponents have a better passing offense than their own. The graphs do not include the game against Portland State. It is possible that Washington could be a game changer against Texas. They are below average in passing defense. Texas has a strong defensive line with Byron Murphy, Keondre Coburn, Moro Ojomo, T’Vondr Sweat, Barryn Sorrell and Jaylan Ford.

Steve Sarkisian's second season in charge of Texas has been very successful. The graph below shows how each Big 12 team has changed. Texas improved on both sides of the ball. Kansas came out well this season. Many offenses dropped off this year. TCU's offense carried the same success rate as last year while tightening their defense.