Texas vs. Iowa State Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 12

sportsbookreview.com

16 November 2023

Texas vs. Iowa State Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 12

The Longhorns are better and more talented than the Cyclones, and our top Texas vs. Iowa State prediction is based on the best NCAAF odds from our best sports betting apps.

Having faltered under the lights of Jack Trice Stadium against the Kansas Jayhawks, the Iowa State Cyclones (6-4) face a stiff test with the Texas Longhorns (9-1) on deck.

The Longhorns still have a shot at the College Football Playoff, making it very difficult to see them falling short against an Iowa State team that's less talented on both sides of the ball.

To accompany all of our college football predictions for Week 12, here is our best Texas vs. Iowa State prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Texas vs. Iowa State prediction

In order to buy into Iowa State in this matchup, I would have needed to see more from the Cyclones in any of their marquee matchups so far this season. Iowa State is a solid team with a resume built on the backs of handling lesser opponents, which isn’t even entirely true, given the Cyclones’ early-season loss to the Ohio Bobcats.

Of Iowa State’s six wins, the highest-ranked opponent in adjusted efficiency was Oklahoma State. The Cowboys fall outside the Top 40 in the metric. The Cyclones hung within a 7.5-point spread against Kansas (26th in adjusted efficiency) and Iowa (37th in adjusted efficiency), but those losses don’t inform their ability to contend with the Longhorns.

Texas ranks seventh in the nation in adjusted efficiency, the toughest test the Cyclones will have seen this season. Iowa State failed its test against Oklahoma, losing 50-20. The Cyclones aren’t particularly adept at running or passing the football. As they also run one of the slowest offensive paces in the nation, it’s hard to envision the Cyclones putting up more than the 18.4 points per game allowed by Texas on the season.

Although the Longhorns are just 2-2 ATS in road games this season, their outright win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa showed this group’s ability to handle tough environments. Ames, Iowa at night is a tough place to win, but I don’t see this version of Iowa State having the makeup to keep this one close.

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets

Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook

Texas vs. Iowa State best odds

Across the board, we’re seeing the Longhorns at -7.5, which is a solid value relative to the opening line of -8.5. All but one of our best sports betting apps list Texas on the spread with -105 odds. The exception is bet365, making that book a lesser value for this particular wager.

Getting the number down to -7 would bump our recommendation to four stars. If the line should move back toward Texas, we still like the Longhorns back to the original -8.5 spread.

Texas vs. Iowa State odds

Texas opened as an 8.5-point road favorite, but has seen the line trimmed to -7.5 across our best sportsbooks as 53% of wagers have come in on the Cyclones.

The total opened at 48.5 and has fallen to between 47 and 47.5 across our best sports betting sites. At this time, 55% of wagers have come in on the Over.