Texas vs Iowa State Odds, Picks, & Predictions Tonight

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16 January 2023

Texas vs Iowa State Odds, Picks, & Predictions Tonight

Between the market overcorrecting to Iowa State's defense and Texas' defense falling off a cliff in recent weeks, this total is a few points too low. We break down the 131-point Over/Under and more in our college basketball picks and predictions below.

Given the quality of the Big 12 this season, there will be plenty of marquee matchups during conference play. Tuesday night is no exception with a clash between two Top-15 teams: the No. 7 Texas Longhorns (15-2) and No. 12 Iowa State Cyclones (13-3).

The Cyclones have been fantastic this season and will look to rebound after a two-point loss to Kansas on Saturday.

The Longhorns have rattled off three straight victories, although last week’s pair of narrow wins came by a combined six points. Can they keep getting by with such thin margins?

Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions below for Texas vs. Iowa State below.

Texas vs Iowa State best odds

Texas vs Iowa State picks and predictions

Have the rumors of Texas’ demise been greatly exaggerated? The Longhorns are now 8-1 under interim head coach Rodney Terry.

After getting run out of the gym by Kansas State in the first week of conference play, the team has responded with three straight victories. Texas ranks seventh in the AP Poll and ninth in KenPom, so it's evident this is still a top team in the country.

The Longhorns have been playing with fire as both home wins a week ago came in a very similar fashion. First, they went down 42-29 at half to TCU before rallying back in the second half for a 79-75 victory. Then, they were behind 34-25 to Texas Tech at the half but pulled off a narrow 72-70 win thanks to yet another strong second frame.

Now let's take a look at Iowa State, which is off to an impressive 13-3 start overall. The Cyclones took their first conference loss (4-1) on Saturday to Kansas by a score of 62-60 in which the team gave a strong showing but was ultimately undone by turnovers and a stalling offense.

T.J. Otzelberger’s squad thrives off a clear identity that involves playing suffocating defense, giving them a chance in nearly every game due to their proficiency on that side of the ball.

I believe Iowa State’s defensive reputation has caused this total to drop too far. The Cyclones are 11-5 to the Under this season, so the books have recently caught on and started pricing their totals differently.

Currently, the Over/Under for this matchup is set at between 131 and 131.5 depending on the book. That’s a tad too low for me considering Texas has taken a slide defensively lately while remaining strong on the offensive side of the ball.

The Longhorns rank 17th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric and 100th in adjusted tempo — a recipe for points in most matchups. They’ve scored at least 70 points in 16 of their 17 games this season and are 9-6-2 to the Over. With Terry in charge, they’ve gone 7-1-1 to the Over.

We knew something was off with Texas’ once-vaunted defense when it fell 116-103 to Kansas State four games ago, and I’m not sure we’ve seen much evidence of that being fixed. Recently, TCU scored 75 points and a struggling Texas Tech offense managed 70 points against Texas.

Given the Longhorns’ strong tendency to the Over since playing for an interim coach combined with an overcorrection on Iowa State’s totals (3-2 to the Over in the last five games), I’ll be targeting the Over as my best bet.

My best bet: Over 131 (-110 at bet365)

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Texas vs Iowa State spread analysis

This line currently resides between Iowa State -2.5 and -3 depending on the book.

On one hand, Texas has been getting by on the slimmest of margins lately and is searching for a new identity after taking a step back on the defensive side of the ball. Falling into double-digit deficits in the first half isn’t a long-term game plan for success — especially not against a team as good as Iowa State.

The Cyclones rank 13th overall in KenPom and have a terrific defense allowing just 57.9 ppg and ranking fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency.

On the other hand, Texas has been the better team for most of the season and yet can be had as the underdog in this spot. We’ve already seen Iowa State edge out close wins in conference play (63-60 over Oklahoma, 69-67 against TCU), and there will likely be plenty more narrow victories to come given the Cyclones’ style of play.

The trends support Iowa State, who is 11-5 ATS this season. The Cyclones are on a 5-0 ATS run in their last five games and have been deadly at home, going 4-1 ATS in their last five at James H. Hilton Coliseum. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these schools.

Texas is a money-burning 6-11 ATS this year. The Longhorns have been on a skid, going 1-5 ATS in their last six.

Texas vs Iowa State Over/Under analysis

I’m not looking to play many Overs in Iowa State games this season, but Tuesday night is one exception to that rule.

The Cyclones average 70.8 ppg while ranking 81st in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency. Three players, all transfer guards — Jaren Holmes, Gabe Kalscheur, Caleb Grill — average double figures. Holmes leads the way with just 12.8 ppg, evidence of this team’s community approach to contributing in the scoring department.

Their defense has been elite, holding opponents to 39.8% from the field (37th nationally) and 30.0% from 3-point range (40th).

Texas averages 81.5 ppg and has four players averaging double figures. Marcus Carr (17.5 ppg) is the star of the show, while Timmy Allen (10.9 ppg), Tyrese Hunter (10.6 ppg), and Sir’Jabari Rice (10.4 ppg) are all capable bucket-getters. This will be a revenge game for Hunter, who led Iowa State to the Sweet 16 a year ago before entering the transfer portal.

Texas’ once-stingy defense has taken a slide in recent weeks. The Longhorns now rank 107th in field goal defense (41.8%) and 146th in 3-point defense (32.7%).