Texas vs Washington prediction, odds: Sugar Bowl preview
The 2023/24 bowl season continues on Monday with the second College Football Playoff semifinal, the Sugar Bowl. The Caesars Superdome is set to host the No. 2 Washington Huskies (13-0) and the No. 3 Texas Longhorns (12-1) as these two teams square off to see who joins the Rose Bowl winner in the national title.
Kickoff is slated for 7:45 p.m. CT on Monday, Jan. 1, at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. ESPN will carry the national broadcast with Sean McDonough and Greg McElroy on the call.
Washington comes into the game with a sizeable chip on its shoulder. The Huskies have been continuously doubted throughout the home stretch of the season. Despite this, the Pac-12 Champions have successfully navigated a 13-game season without a loss thus far. Washington will be looking to avenge its last outing in the four-team field, a 24-7 defeat to Alabama in 2016.
Oddsmakers don't seem to think that the Huskies will reach the big game, though. The Big 12-winning Texas Longhorns are favored after blowing out their last two opponents to reach the College Football Playoff for the first time. Steve Sarkisian's team has an impressive résumé that features a road win over a CFP opponent in the Alabama Crimson Tide. However, the Longhorns have slipped up at various points this year with one loss and a few other close calls.
Both teams come into the semifinal relatively healthy. Texas stars Xavier Worthy (WR) and Ryan Watts (CB) are expected back for the contest while Washington doesn't have any key injuries to report. Keep an eye out here for all notable news from both sides in the build-up to the big game.
Caesars Sportsbook, the official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com, lists the Longhorns as 4-point favorites with a total set at 63.5.
Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends:
Texas Longhorns (12-1) vs. Washington Huskies (13-0)
Time/TV: Monday, Jan. 1, at 7:45 p.m. (ESPN)
Point spread (from Caesars): Texas -4
Over/Under: 63.5
Moneyline: Texas -190, Washington +158
Analysis: These teams met in the 2022 Alamo Bowl, a game Kalen DeBoer's side won by a score of 27-20. Both programs have built on last season's success, though, and they're vastly improved football teams.
Many are trying to make sense of this line after Washington's win over Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship, where they closed as near-10-point underdogs. This and the 2022 Alamo Bowl result are making some hesitant to bet on Texas to get the job done, but it matches up better against the Huskies than the Ducks did.
The Longhorns have a front seven capable of disrupting even the most well-balanced offenses and they'll test the Joe Moore Award-winning line on the other side. Washington could struggle to run the ball, which puts more of a burden on Penix Jr. to make plays from inside the pocket. He won't have as many clean looks as he did versus Oregon either, especially against a defense that averages nearly 2.5 sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss per game.
A healthy Ewers is capable of beating anybody in the country. Therefore, I like the Longhorns to squeak out a win over the Huskies when it's all said and done. My projection has Texas winning by four, so to avoid a push on the spread, I recommend betting the over. These teams are a combined 11-15 to the over this season, but they went over 63.5 in all four games they played against other Top 10-ranked opponents throughout the year.
Prediction: Texas 35, Washington 31 (Over 63.5)
Best bet: Over 63.5 (-110 via Caesars Sportsbook)
