The $20 Billion Day: How To Bet On Super Bowl LVIII

Some $20 billion will be bet worldwide on this season’s Super Bowl, most of it illegally, with more than half the U.S. adult population having a wager on the big game. Those bets will come in all forms, whether it be American and offshore bookmakers, Internet wagers, office pools, person-to-person bets and Super Bowl parties, making it the single biggest sports betting event annually. There is no close second or third annual betting event to the Super Bowl, which is the main reason it is the highest-rated TV program every year. 

Currently 37 states and the District of Columbia offer legal sports betting, and I’d estimate within four years, more than 44 states will offer legal sports betting. 

“Super Bowl betting increases every year,” says veteran Carl Johnson, the BET MGM sports director of Beau Rivage Casino, one of the most opulent player-friendly sportsbooks in the country. “This year we’ll have a full reserved house in our sports book, upstairs in our main ballroom, and we have plans to put the expected overflow crowd in our 2,000-seat theater arena. Additionally we’ll have 11 kiosk machines taking wagers. Every betting window will be fully staffed from sun up until the game ends”.

Much of that action will come from proposition bets, known as prop bets. “Since 60 to 70 percent of our Super Bowl handle will be in prop bets, we’ll have a prop catalog listing 400 to 500 prop bets to hand out to our customers,” Johnson says. “We expect several six figure bets and wouldn’t rule out some seven-figure bets.”

Jay Kornegay, executive vice president of Super Book sports operations at the Las Vegas Westgate Super Book (which offers online sports betting in nine states), also expects an extremely busy day. “We’ll have 19 fully-staffed betting windows open game day to handle the shark-feeding frenzy of non-stop betting. Las Vegas expects more six- and seven-figure bets this year from the VIP, very affluent crowd here for the game. The most popular wagers are straight bets (which includes prop bets). Next would be the game’s total, followed by parlays and teasers.”

Like the legal U.S. sports betting industry, offshore bookmakers I’ve talked to confirmed that the Super Bowl betting handle increases every year. One offshore sportsbook owner, whose clients include well known singers, bands, agents, and former and current professional athletes, says his clients “bet the Super Bowl like there’s no tomorrow.” His favorite bettor is a lady singer who bets $50,000 annually on one thing only—the winner of the coin flip. He says she’s been doing it for more than 12 years, and is up two wins.

Winning against the house isn’t the norm. Since Nevada started keeping Super Bowl betting records in 1991, the betting public has only beat the Nevada Sports Books in two years: 1995 and 2008. That’s where my advice comes in. 

These are my five Super Bowl betting rules, and my odds for the playoff teams going on to win the Super Bowl on February 11. I’ve used two of these rules to help me correctly predict 21 of the last 23 Super Bowls versus the spread and 19 of the last 23 over/under totals. Use these guidelines to help you wager correctly, so you can win (or save some) money on Super Bowl LVIII.

No. 1: Ignore The Spread 

The winner of the Super Bowl has failed to beat the spread only seven times, a record of 47-7-3, or 87 percent. Ignore the point spread and simply wager on who you think will win the game. Last year Kansas City was a 1.5-point-underdog and won. In 2021, Tampa Bay (a 3.5-point underdog), upset Kansas City 31-9. In 2020 the Chiefs (who 1.5-point favorites) beat San Francisco 31-20. The examples go on and on. Back in 2002 a well-known Hollywood agent to the stars bet a cool $1 million offshore on 14-point-underdog New England (with a little-known quarterback named Tom Brady) against the St. Louis Rams. He bet another $400,000 for the Pats to win outright at 6-1. When New England won 20-17 in Super Bowl XXXVI, he netted a cool $3.24 million. 

Conversely, the late, legendary oddsmaker supreme Bob Martin took a $1.65 million wager to win $1.5 million on the L.A. Rams, getting 11 points against Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XIV. The Rams missed an extra point, and lost by 12. Ouch! 

The last two teams to win the Super Bowl and not beat the spread were the L.A. Rams (-4) beating Cincinnati 23-20 in 2022, and Pittsburgh (-7) beating Arizona 27-23 in 2009. 

Rule No. 2: Tailor Your Bet To A Team’s Strength 

Total points wagering (betting on the combined score) has become the second-most popular type of Super Bowl wager. When two offensively-potent teams meet, bet the under, as they tend to play conservatively, feeling they can score whenever they want. Also, many offensive juggernauts only open up after they’ve felt each out for a half. In 2022, when the L.A. Rams led by quarterback Matthew Stafford faced Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals, the final score went under the 48.5 total (23-20). In 2021, Kansas City vs. Tampa Bay (Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes, two Hall-Of-Fame caliber scoring machines) went under the 56 point total (31-9). In 2019, the total opened at an all-time high of 59 points (closing at game time at 56) as the Patriots and Rams, two of the top-scoring teams in the league, faced off. In the end, they scored a combined 16 points, finishing well under the total. 

Conversely, if two dominant defensive giants collide, bet the over. In these cases the offenses tend to open up, figuring that any scoring will help their defense and they are less fearful of making mistakes. Playing that way makes offenses more prone to turnovers, which often leads to more scoring. In 2018, Philadelphia and New England, which had dominated their opponents defensively in the playoffs, scored 74 points in a 41 to 33 game, easily beating the over, which was only 49. In 2017, New England beat Atlanta 34 to 28 for a combined score of 62 points, far over the total of 57. 

If one team is known for its offense and the other team for its defense, I’d recommend attacking your Super Bowl food and drink (although not with the same intensity as Joey Chestnut taking on the July 4th ESPN-televised Nathan’s Hot Dog-eating contest), and pass on wagering on the total altogether. Of the four total wager predictions I’ve missed out of the last 23 Super Bowl games, I’m 1-3 vs the spread where one team was known for its offense, and the other for its defense, because I don’t have the luxury of passing on the total prediction. You do.

Rule No. 3: Avoid Proposition Bets

Sports books will put up 400 to 500 proposition bets. Do not bet any of them. These bets include such items as the number of completions by the quarterback, player receiving and rushing yards, fumbles, field goals, you name it. The public loses prop bets almost every year. One of the biggest sports books in Las Vegas and offshore said before the 2024 Super Bowl they had lost money booking prop bets only twice in 28 years: in 1995, when San Francisco beat San Diego 49-26, the highest-scoring Super Bowl, and in 2018, because Super Bowl LII set numerous all-time offensive records, which led to the second-highest scoring in Super Bowl history (41-33). This is because the prop-betting public always bets the props to go over their totals, which is what happens in high-scoring Super Bowl games.

The fact that sports books have only lost on prop bets twice in the last 26 years tells me it’s not prudent to bet them, and doing so can be hazardous to your wealth. You might wind up like Carolina Panther’s owner David Tepper, disgustedly tossing your drink at anyone within striking distance. Stay away from prop bets.

Rule No. 4: Remember The Original Line

At halftime, bookies post a new point spread for the second half of the big game. Always bet the team at halftime that you think will beat the original Super Bowl line. The team that has beaten the game’s opening point spread has also beaten the halftime spread in 27 of the last 30 Super Bowls. In Super Bowl III, the Jets were 18-point underdogs to the Baltimore Colts. The Jets led 7-0 at the half, and won 16-7, easily covering the second-half line. If you become aware that your inebriated brother-in-law is about to disregard Rule No. 4, don’t hesitate to use a hip drop tackle on him—just look around first and make sure Roger Goodell is not at your Super Bowl party.

Rule No. 5: Teasing Isn’t Funny

Don’t bet teasers, as these wagers earn their name. They might look appealing, but your chances of making money on them simply aren’t good. Also don’t bet parlays, as more than one-third of a bookmaker's profits come from them. You’d be better off wagering that Taylor Swift will leave Travis Kelce for Andy Reid.

Sheridan’s Odds For Super Bowl LVIII
The Favorites:San Francisco     2:1Baltimore             3:1Buffalo                 6:1

Dallas                   7:1

Solid Bets:Kansas City         10:1Philadelphia        15:1Miami                   18:1

Detroit                  20:1

The Longshots:Cleveland         50:1Houston           60:1L.A. Rams        75:1Tampa Bay      250:1Green Bay       500:1

Pittsburgh       750:1

Danny Sheridan appears frequently in newspapers and on TV, and writes regularly about football for Cigar Aficionado.