NFL Super Bowl Odds: 2 Bets to Make Right Now and 2 to Wait On
The Kansas City Chiefs are underdogs heading into the Super Bowl against the San Francisco 49ers. This line opened at Chiefs +3 but could be on the move almost immediately. Jason Logan explains why it might be prudent to act quickly.
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The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers are heading to Sin City for Super Bowl LVIII.
Super Bowl betting odds are on the board for the February 11 championship game in Las Vegas, kicking off a two-week window of action that will shape and mold the point spread, moneyline, and Over/Under total.
I dive into the opening NFL odds for Super Bowl LVIII and tell you which lines to bet now and which ones you may want to wait to wager on for your NFL picks.
Super Bowl bet now, bet later picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Chiefs (+2.5) at 49ers: Bet Now
Heading into the NFC Championship, look-ahead lines had the San Francisco 49ers as 3-point favorites versus the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII. And then San Francisco needed to crawl out of a 17-point halftime hole to punch its ticket to Vegas.
As the final seconds finished in Santa Clara on Sunday night, Kansas City was as low as +2 at some online markets while mainstream books hit the board with Chiefs +3 with heavy vig at -122. Now, you can get Kansas City +2.5.
Kansas City is coming off a much more appealing victory over Baltimore, in which it displayed two-way football on the road. Patrick Mahomes and the offense broke a very good Baltimore defense and KC’s stop unit looked incredible.
The 49ers, on the other hand, nearly let the Lions beat them on their own field and gave up 31 points on 442 total yards. If not for a few lucky bounces, San Francisco could be watching from home again.
You rarely bet the Big Game underdog out of the shoot, as historic betting patterns have seen Super Bowl action gravitate toward the favorite. However, this is no normal underdog.
If you’re backing the Chiefs, I would grab all the points you can right now as I expect this spread to close closer to one point in two weeks.
Best odds to bet Chiefs +2.5 right now
Chiefs at 49ers (Under 47.5): Bet Later
The Super Bowl is booked unlike any other game. In a market manipulated by the sharp money from Week 1 to Championship Sunday, Super Bowl Sunday belongs to the "Joes." And what does the public want from their Big Game experience?
Answer: Plenty of points.
More often than not, we see the Super Bowl total tick up and this year’s Big Game Over/Under will likely play along. The total opened at 47 points and we’ve already seen a move to 47.5 in the opening minutes of action.
If you like the Under between the Chiefs and 49ers, wait… but not too long.
This is a slow simmer over the next two weeks, with pro betting groups taking bites from the total — moving it up or down — and a gradual rise as we get closer to Super Bowl Weekend.
However, in recent years, the late adjustment to the Super Bowl total was down, as Under bettors come in late when the Over money pushes the total to a tipping point. These downward moves start showing up the Friday night before the game.
Keep an eye on this year’s total. The Niners’ piss-poor defensive showing in the NFC title game, love for Mahomes & Co., and that public push for points could take it up to 48 points and beyond.
If you’re not buying a busy night for the scoreboard in Sin City, come in on the Under later — but not too late.
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