The likely Wales World Cup squad that Warren Gatland will name on Monday

It’s been a summer of Welsh rugby surprises, with Alun Wyn Jones and Justin Tipuric retiring from the Test scene on the same day and Rhys Webb following them not long after.

Not everyone saw those events coming.

How many shocks should we expect when Warren Gatland names his Wales World Cup squad on Monday?

Let’s assume there will be at least one headline grabber after auditions that haven’t ultimately proved convincing.

We take a look at what Gatland’s 33-strong squad might look like.

BACK THREE: Liam Williams, Leigh Halfpenny, Louis Rees-Zammit, Josh Adams

The only stone-cold certainty here is Williams, and even he missed Saturday’s game against the Springboks because of injury. Halfpenny's low-error game should be a huge point in his favour, given the chaos that engulfed Wales at times in the campaign finale. The 100-cap man knows the World Cup course and isn’t easily flustered – and the ability to stay cool under pressure is never to be undervalued. Can we say he’s definitely in the 33? No. Should he make the cut? Many would think so.

Rees-Zammit hasn’t overwhelmed this summer or played even close to his potential. He is a player who should frighten opposition teams, like Cheslin Kolbe does for South Africa, but Wales have difficulty bringing him into matches. But, still, he’s someone who can score out of nothing, and Wales do not have the attacking riches to leave him out.

Has Josh Adams done enough to claim the fourth and potentially final back-three spot? It’ll be interesting to see. Rio Dyer has been arguably Wales’ most dangerous attacker – in the second half against South Africa the Springboks struggled to know whether he was going to zig or zag – and he was outstanding in the air on Saturday. On the debit side, the odd mistake seems priced into his game.

Whether he makes the cut or not, Cai Evans did himself no harm at all with his effort against the world champions, while Tom Rogers is coming from a long way back and Alex Cuthbert is going to have to rely on past deeds after missing the three-match campaign through injury.

CENTRES: George North, Mason Grady, Johnny Williams, Nick Tompkins

George North’s name is inked in assuming he’s fit.

Shall we call it a flick of a coin over Mason Grady and Joe Roberts at outside centre? Maybe Grady will just edge it because he can cover wing as well as play in midfield, while he is also big and powerful and if an injury should befall North – Gatland will desperately hope that doesn’t prove the case - Wales would have a readymade replacement.

No inside centre has truly put his hand up.

Maybe Johnny Williams just about scraped into favour with his effort against the Boks. It featured physicality on both sides of the ball: nothing to throw a party over, but, by the standards of Welsh inside-centre play this summer, it was positive.

Does Gatland go with Max Llewellyn? If he opts for Williams as one of his 12s and the Scarlet were to break down, he’d still have a powerful strike runner to call on.

There again, Nick Tompkins has experience and on the big stage that matters.

Keiran Williams can count himself hard done by in selection in recent weeks. He ran devastatingly for the Ospreys last term, unfailingly denting opposition defences. At one point it seemed if he were asked to run straight into a four-square brick Bethesda chapel the said chapel would not survive the experience. But we haven’t seen enough of him in this campaign, meaning it’s odds-against the 26-year-old bagging a place.

FLY-HALVES:Dan Biggar, Gareth Anscombe, Sam Costelow

It’s been a strange old campaign for Biggar. For a start, he didn’t start, with two appearances off the bench against England and injury ruling him out of the game with South Africa. There was also the sideshow of Warren Gatland publicly upbraiding him via his Telegraph column for the way he ‘confronted’ Owen Farrell after the England man’s dangerous hit on Taine Basham. Gatland said the need had been for senior players to show ‘leadership and calmness’ in such moments.

But the coach knows what Biggar can do and the expectation is the Toulon man will be one of the first names on the squad list.

There are questions over Gareth Anscombe’s durability, with niggling injuries seemingly following him around, but the carnage against South Africa underlined how much Wales need experienced heads in their set-up. If he’s fit, he’s likely to travel.

Neither Sam Costelow nor Owen Williams has truly grabbed a place with both hands this summer, and the best Welsh attacking 10 is off limits with the eight-cap Jarrod Evans now ensconced at Harlequins.

Maybe the promise Costelow showed in the series opener will swing the verdict his way. There won’t be much in it, though.

SCRUM-HALVES:Tomos Williams, Gareth Davies, Kieran Hardy

Without anyone else to provide scrum-half cover, Wales would be taking too big a risk in taking just two No. 9s to the World Cup. Tomos Williams will travel as first choice with Gareth Davies, the starting scrum-half in the win over England at the start of the month, set to lead the competition. Not at his best against South Africa, his first game of the summer, Kieran Hardy will hope to make the fight for a starting spot a three-cornered one.

PROPS: Nicky Smith, Gareth Thomas, Corey Domachowski; Tomas Francis, Henry Thomas, Dillon Lewis

Gatland hasn’t exactly overused Smith and Gareth Thomas, but the pair have emerged from the warm-up games with their reputations intact. Domachowski has endured two tough scrummaging tests, and it would be a stretch to suggest he’s come through with flying colours, but his work around the field has been good and he may just edge out Kemsley Mathias for the third loosehead spot.

Francis has delivered for Wales over a number of years and it isn’t as if there’s a huge queue of tightheads battering on Gatland’s door demanding to be included, while Henry Thomas works hard around the field and has managed to keep his head above water in the set-pieces, notwithstanding that it hasn’t been easy.

Experience may flip the third tighthead spot Dillon Lewis’ way at the expense of Keiron Assiratti.

HOOKERS: Elliot Dee, Ryan Elias, Dewi Lake/Sam Parry

Elias injured a hamstring against England in the opener, while Lake suffered a knee problem against the same opposition a week later.

Gatland’s problem is that he needs two fit hookers for the key game with Fiji on September 10. If Elias is fit for selection – Wales estimated he’d be out for up to four weeks after the bump he picked up on August 5 – there’s no problem. But if there’s a doubt about whether he’ll make it, then there is an issue, with Lake’s injury looking arguably more serious.

Do the selectors name Dee and hope Elias and Lake return to fitness quickly? Or should they throw a shirt to Parry?

Fitness issues will dictate.

Locks: Will Rowlands, Dafydd Jenkins, Adam Beard, Ben Carter

Again, Wales have an injury concern over Dafydd Jenkins, who was said to be “about four weeks away” on August 12. Assuming that’s still the time frame, he can expect to be named in the squad.

Will Rowlands will be the first lock on the plane, while Wales are unlikely to do without Adam Beard’s experience at a time when the streetwise alternatives are thin on the ground.

Ben Carter’s fine lineout shows may secure him the final second-row place ahead of Rhys Davies, though there won’t be a lot in it, with Gatland presumably enjoying Davies’ excellence in defence and the hard edge he brings. Potentially, Christ Tshiunza might also come into the lock equation.

BACK ROW: Dan Lydiate, Christ Tshiunza, Jac Morgan, Taine Basham, Aaron Wainwright, Taulupe Faletau

Another shower of uncertainty, with Faletau and Taine Plumtree carrying injuries. “Taulupe Faletau goes because he’s Taulupe Faletau,” said Sam Warburton on Saturday evening. If he’s fit, the No. 8 is one of the first names on the squad list. But Wales will want reassurances after his absences because of injury this summer.

Wainwright also has a ticket to travel and so does Jac Morgan, presumably as skipper.

How priceless could Lydiate be in the matter of knocking back Fiji’s powerful ball carriers? We’ll just leave that question out there.

There's a strong chance Wales will take a player who can cover back row and lock. Given Plumtree has been injured, and had a tough afternoon last time out, maybe that player will be Tshiunza.

There again, could Tshiunza go as a specialist second-row ahead of Carter and Rhys Davies to create space for another back rower?

If not it could come down to a shootout between Taine Basham and Tommy Reffell for the final back-row spot. Basham has impressed this summer, a player capable of Hollywood moments but also able to mix it, and he has explosive ball-carrying in his armoury. But Reffell is world-class over the ball. Can Gatland accommodate both?

Who would be a selector?

Wales' likely 33-man squad:Liam Williams, Leigh Halfpenny, Louis Rees-Zammit, Josh Adams, George North, Mason Grady, Johnny Williams, Nick Tompkins, Dan Biggar, Gareth Anscombe, Sam Costelow, Tomos Williams, Gareth Davies, Kieran Hardy, Nicky Smith, Gareth Thomas, Corey Domachowski; Tomas Francis, Henry Thomas, Dillon Lewis, Elliot Dee, Ryan Elias, Dewi Lake/Sam Parry, Will Rowlands, Dafydd Jenkins, Adam Beard, Ben Carter, Dan Lydiate, Christ Tshiunza, Jac Morgan, Taine Basham, Aaron Wainwright, Taulupe Faletau